-Caveat Lector-
Ocean is warming, study finds
Friday, March 24, 2000 By John Roach
http://www.enn.com/enn-news-archive/2000/03/03242000/wrldoc_11332.asp
The world ocean has experienced a net warming of 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit from the
sea surface through about 10,000 feet of depth over the past 35-45 years. The upper
1,000 feet has warmed by 0.56 degrees Fahrenheit.
"Although these may seem like small changes, it represents a large change in the heat
content of the ocean," said Sydney Levitus, an oceanographer with the National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. "Water is very effective at absorbing
heat without undergoing much of a temperature change."
The finding, reported in today's issue of Science, answers the question of why the
Earth's atmosphere has not warmed as much as climate model simulations have
predicted, a point made repeatedly by critics of global warming.
"The response of climate modelers has been that part of the warming due to
increasing greenhouse gases could be expected to be found in the ocean," said
Levitus. "Our results support the predictions of the climate modelers and suggest that
the models do have the correct sensitivity to increasing greenhouse gases."
The ocean warming itself is not conclusive evidence of global warming due to human-
induced emissions of greenhouse gases. Combined with lower atmosphere and sea
surface warming over the past 100 years and the thinning and retreat of Arctic sea ice
during the past 35 to 45 years, however, builds a strong case for anthropogenic global
warming.
"I have followed the greenhouse gas debate and part of the scientific literature on the
subject. During the past year I have come to believe that part of the warming we
observe in the Earth's climate system is due to increased greenhouse gases," said
Levitus.
A warmer ocean has an effect on fish migration routes, and thus the success of
fisheries, can cause outbreaks of cholera in some parts of the world and affects
atmospheric circulation patterns and weather.
The warming of the ocean was not a steady process, according to the study. The heat
content rose from a low in the 1950s, peaked in the late '70s, dropped in the '80s and
rose to a higher peak in the '90s.
"Finding not only that a net warming of the ocean has occurred but that there are
large-
scale coherent patterns to this warming suggest that we may someday have the ability
to make climate forecasts on decadal time scales," said Levitus.
The study is based on 5 million profiles of ocean temperature collected over the last
seven years by data archeologists like Levitus. He is quite confident in the results
and
believes the establishment of a global ocean observing system will ensure the ability
to
document changes in the ocean into the future.
Copyright 2000, Environmental News Network All Rights Reserved
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