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On 04/29/2014 07:09 AM, Gervase Markham wrote:
> 
> Let's imagine StartCom said to you: "OK, we will perform free 
> revocations for all Heartbleed-affected certificates, as you 
> request. And we are changing our business model to charge up-front 
> for certs like all the other CAs, so we don't get hit with a big 
> cost like this again. No more free-of-charge 1-year-valid certs on 
> the Internet."
> 
> Would you consider that a good trade-off, in terms of improving
> the general security of the Internet?

I had to think about this for quite a while, and my answer winds up
being "it depends".

First off, I want to say that estimate the risk of leaving certificates
unrevoked post-Heartbleed fairly low, *despite* evidence that it could
be exploited to capture private keys, because no one has credibly
demonstrated that it was being exploited prior to disclosure (if I'm
wrong about this please tell me!)  Therefore, as long as the affected
server was patched promptly, the odds of a key compromise are low.  (At
this point, though, there are weaponized exploits circulating, so CAs in
general really ought to to crawl their subscriber database and
unilaterally revoke certificates that are on servers that are *still*
vulnerable.)

Because of that, the things we are trading off are (as I see it):
marginal probability that someone starting up a new website will make it
an HTTPS website, versus aggregate probability that, in response to
*similar future* catastrophic events, everyone who should have revoked
their certificate does so.

I think the main thing that swings this tradeoff is how much that
upfront charge is.  If you are considering the acquisition of a
certificate, you are already paying for a domain registration; domain
names cost order of (US)$15 a year, which is peanuts compared to the
cost of the server / hosting provider.  So a charge on the order of $15
per certificate per year is, I think, not that likely to deter people
from making their site HTTPS.  Conversely, we know from this very
discussion that lots of people considered revoking their free StartCom
cert and didn't, precisely because it *wasn't* free.  Relatedly, people
are generally more comfortable with costs that are predictable than with
costs that are unexpected, even if they wind up spending more money in
total with the predictable costs.

On the other hand, if the cost has to go up to $50 or more, that starts
sounding like people who have concrete, not-just-in-principle reasons to
make their site HTTPS *will* be deterred, which would be bad.

Pulling in something you said in response to Jan:
> That sounds to me like: "I'd like to live in a world where
> whatever costs there are for having a certificate system are not
> borne by me under any circumstances."

- -- I keep coming back to my earlier observation that this sort of
low-probability, high-cost event is what insurance is for.  Eddy said
that he had "never heard of" insurance against losses incurred because
of catastrophic failure of software that the business relies on, but
given that the state of play in the software industry is to disclaim all
warranties at all times while shipping code riddled with bugs, I cannot
bring myself to believe that such insurance is unobtainable.  It seems
like something lots of businesses should want.

zw
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