Chris Wilson wrote: >> That would be mobile phone - the future of computing is being discussed >> on another email list I participate on with the changed context that the >> mobile phone brings. >> >> In essence, the PC doesn't really know it's dead yet - partly because it >> isn't dead *yet* and also because no one really seems to understand how >> the market is changing. >> > > I don't agree that the mobile phone has killed the PC. They are used for > very different things. Can you see a businessman tracking his stock or > calculating optimal market strategies using databases and spreadsheets on > a mobile, or a student reading or writing textbooks and essays on one? > I'd say you'll see this within the next 5 years due to the following:
(1) Improved hardware. (2) Improved software. The stepping stones are video and input. But let's take stock: no one ever thought text messages would be such a big deal despite the awkward keyboard on a mobile phone. But there it is. The video and input can be solved with output jacks for monitors and keyboards. At the end of the day, mobile phones are all over. PCs are not. Mobile phones have more computing power than the first PCs right now. PCs are heavier to ship (a large factor). > We may see convergence, we may see divergence, we will certainly see > adaptation to niches, but I don't believe that the mobile phone is the > answer to the world's problems any more than the PC is. > No, the answer to the world's problems remains geopolitical despite how flat Friedman thinks the Earth is. ;-) >> The mobile phone has forever changed the landscape - even gaining >> special mention in the UNESCO report brought out this year. If anything, >> the mobile phone is accidentally closing the digital divide. After all, >> it's ubiquitous even in nations that are pretty good at avoiding change >> (i.e., the developing world). >> > > It's becoming ubiquitous in nations that are bad at paying for technology, > that much I agree with. > I think that it would be more fair to say that some nations simply do not allow for rapid adoption by *governments*. > >> Bed netting is a fact of life that many people grow up with - the true >> problem is *affording* it. Irrigation is a common sense use of science >> which varies upon application, so it doesn't translate well to the web >> until you can upload topography and soil type data and assure that the >> results are near perfect. >> > > I think that the internet is a digital analogy to irrigation. It makes > other pieces of technology (fields vs computers) more effective and > useful. > I think the Internet offers the potential for making things more effective and useful. Even so, we're looking at 20% Internet penetration - which means that the number of people offline is roughly equivalent to the world population of 1995. >> No, maybe simply participating in discussion is the first step. Thus, >> the mobile phone. >> > > It is an important step, but not the first (that is the willingness to > participate in discussion) or the second (that is the ability to afford to > participate in discussion), and no more than an accessory to the steps > that follow (that is turning discussion into action and change). > I respectfully disagree. One must know that there is a discussion before one can participate, and thus one has to fall into the discussion somewhere along the line. :-) >> The truth is that the developing world doesn't need PCs as much as it >> needs better mobile phones and telecommunications regulation. >> > > True, but it does need them. > That may be so, but the *how* and *why* vary according to population, socioeconomic conditions and a variety of other reasons. Sure, I'd like to see more tech in agriculture (since this is what I'm doing these days) but at the end of the day, people don't need a PC as much as they need a piece of technology that makes their jobs easier. The mobile phone is actually much more useful and versatile to farmers than a PC. Calculator, communication and even a few games to kill time. >> Importing PCs into developing nations that have no legal or other >> infrastructure for disposal only pollutes developing nations that need >> the very fertile soil that is being polluted. >> > > No, they have a useful function when used correctly. The important thing > is to import working equipment and place it in situations where it can and > will be used for real benefit, and sustainably. > And I offer that this has been what many have said for decades, and yet... >> The same applies to mobile phones as well, unfortunately. >> > > But not quite in the same way, because I don't think phones are dumped on > developing countries in the way that PCs are, so there is one less hidden > agenda in exporting them. > They are dumped. Where else do people throw them? >> What we need to do, IMHO, is stop playing with the tiger's tail if we >> have no plans for dealing with the teeth. >> > > Is this a warning about e-waste, PCs vs mobiles, empowerment of developing > countries or general feline policy? > It's not a warning. It is an observation, and that observation does fit well with all of the above. People like to play with the furry tail. People like to ignore the sharp pointy teeth. Corporations have it easier - markets are, at the least, pseudo-democracies. But the digital divide is about more than that, and because many people - the vast majority - affected by the digital divide do not have a say due to insufficient finance or poor policy - are not involved in corporate markets. This leads to what we are discussing here. Understanding that at the core is important, because marketing tactics by corporations aren't about ubiquity of access but instead making money. It's not bad, but it doesn't help - and often has to be subverted for people to realize that there is a market. The mobile phone has done just that, and will continue to do so. Why? Because even the corporations see a market where there was not one before. Now the infrastructure is needed. But there are lots of people out there who think that one can make technology useful without proper infrastructure. And infrastructure includes telecom pricing, policy, ewaste, software licensing, content licensing and much more. -- -- Taran Rampersad [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.knowprose.com http://www.your2ndplace.com http://www.opendepth.com http://www.flickr.com/photos/knowprose/ "Criticize by Creating" - Michelangelo "The present is theirs; the future, for which I really worked, is mine." - Nikola Tesla _______________________________________________ DIGITALDIVIDE mailing list DIGITALDIVIDE@digitaldivide.net http://digitaldivide.net/mailman/listinfo/digitaldivide To unsubscribe, send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] with the word UNSUBSCRIBE in the body of the message.
