On Wednesday, 28 November 2018 at 12:48:46 UTC, Laeeth Isharc
wrote:
Nassim Taleb raises the question of how do you choose between
two surgeons, both recommended. One looks the part and hangs
his many certificates on his office wall. The other looks
scruffy with the appearance of a tradesman. Who do you pick?
Taleb says pick the guy who doesn't look the part because if he
got there without signalling he must have something going for
him.
It's definately the kind of surgeon one should choose -
programmers that are not necessarily well groomed etc.. - but is
it the kind of surgeon people will actually recommend? I'm
doubtful.
If X has the social signalling then people will recommend X even
without trying, because it's socially safe.
If one doesn't have the signalling, I've found the hard way even
supporters will hesitate a bit before making recommendations,
because of the social standing _cost_ it may have.
But then, perhaps recommendations don't matter, because opinions
don't matter much? I think they matter to be even heard on public
places.
And I think early adopters need a nudge, the influent need to be
bothered by less influents (influencers are not especially on the
lookout for new options, as they are already influent). Above all
I think the niche of early-adopters is smaller than the larger
market for languages, and the early-adopters are going elsewhere.
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