On Wednesday, 28 November 2018 at 12:48:46 UTC, Laeeth Isharc wrote:

Nassim Taleb raises the question of how do you choose between two surgeons, both recommended. One looks the part and hangs his many certificates on his office wall. The other looks scruffy with the appearance of a tradesman. Who do you pick? Taleb says pick the guy who doesn't look the part because if he got there without signalling he must have something going for him.


It's definately the kind of surgeon one should choose - programmers that are not necessarily well groomed etc.. - but is it the kind of surgeon people will actually recommend? I'm doubtful.

If X has the social signalling then people will recommend X even without trying, because it's socially safe.

If one doesn't have the signalling, I've found the hard way even supporters will hesitate a bit before making recommendations, because of the social standing _cost_ it may have.

But then, perhaps recommendations don't matter, because opinions don't matter much? I think they matter to be even heard on public places.

And I think early adopters need a nudge, the influent need to be bothered by less influents (influencers are not especially on the lookout for new options, as they are already influent). Above all I think the niche of early-adopters is smaller than the larger market for languages, and the early-adopters are going elsewhere.


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