On Wednesday, 28 November 2018 at 13:30:37 UTC, Guillaume Piolat
wrote:
On Wednesday, 28 November 2018 at 12:48:46 UTC, Laeeth Isharc
wrote:
Nassim Taleb raises the question of how do you choose between
two surgeons, both recommended. One looks the part and hangs
his many certificates on his office wall. The other looks
scruffy with the appearance of a tradesman. Who do you pick?
Taleb says pick the guy who doesn't look the part because if
he got there without signalling he must have something going
for him.
It's definately the kind of surgeon one should choose -
programmers that are not necessarily well groomed etc.. - but
is it the kind of surgeon people will actually recommend? I'm
doubtful.
If X has the social signalling then people will recommend X
even without trying, because it's socially safe.
If one doesn't have the signalling, I've found the hard way
even supporters will hesitate a bit before making
recommendations, because of the social standing _cost_ it may
have.
But then, perhaps recommendations don't matter, because
opinions don't matter much? I think they matter to be even
heard on public places.
And I think early adopters need a nudge, the influent need to
be bothered by less influents (influencers are not especially
on the lookout for new options, as they are already influent).
Above all I think the niche of early-adopters is smaller than
the larger market for languages, and the early-adopters are
going elsewhere.
The innovator's dilemma, which is really an insight that dates
back to Toynbee, and before that Ibn Khaldun, is not so obvious.
I am not sure that you have understood it. I suggest reading the
book if you are interested, but otherwise I unfortunately don't
have so much time at the moment to try to persuade you of what
this phenomenon is like and there's limited value to talking
about talking rather than having a discussion based on a shared
understanding of what this is about.
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