On 06/21/2015 01:42 AM, Joakim wrote:
I'd say this is a temporary respite before the final collapse. The only
reason it hasn't happened yet is because mobile devices have not worked
well with plugging into a large monitor with a mouse and keyboard, but
that is now changing.
[...]
Sure, but current mobile hardware is about as powerful as desktop/laptop
chips from a year or two ago, which is what most people are actually
running at work:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/9289/the-nvidia-shield-android-tv-review/3
At this point, it's just a software issue. Mobile devices just need UI
features like multiwindow to make more capable use of large desktop
monitors.
No, there's more to a desktop/laptop than just processing power and
keyboard/monitor/mouse. The mobile devices are also (currently) shit at
storage space (not to mention virtual memory) and peripherals. And then
for devs, ie the people who actually make all this stuff in the first
place, there's even more improvements needed.
I'm not saying it can't or won't reach parity with traditional
laptop/desktop. The groundwork is there and it IS now feasible at least.
But there's still a lot left. And, to even get there at all, the mobile
OS/device devs will have to accept that it will require adopting more
and more desktop/laptop features.
And I think that's the biggest question mark, as they seem quite loathe
to accept that mobile-style (or really, iOS-style, which everyone else
in mobile copied wholesale) isn't universally superior for everyone in
every way. This attitude will prevent them from reaching parity and
replacing desktops/laptops until for as long as they choose to cling to
it. How long they'll cling to it is the question.
But suppose, sooner or later, they've finally managed to improve enough
to render the traditional line of desktops/laptops obsolete. It *WON'T*
be a case of "mobile killed desktop". Because they will have, by
necessity, BECOME just as much desktop as smartphone - the only
difference being the lineage. It would be, in effect, exactly the same
as laptops gaining mobile capabilities and mobile-friendly UI. Except,
oh wait, that's happening too, see MS Surface Pro.
So it's NOT mobile replacing desktop/laptop. It's not "the new defeating
the old" as the smartphone/tablet fans would have everyone believe. It's
just plain old convergence. Neither side will "win" over the other
because winning this game requires erasing the lines between both sides.
Yes and no. As hardware form factors, the old desktop and laptop models
are being ditched. The desktop box will almost completely disappear,
while the folding laptop is only really needed by a small niche, those
for whom "lap-ability" in a plane or conference seat is needed. I
picked up a bluetooth keyboard for my tablet last year: that suffices
for me, and I bet most people, since I'm always going to put them down
on a hard surface before typing. I bet 97% of the people who currently
use laptops are in this category.
And then you need some place to set the phone/tablet. The natural choice
is to dock it into the keyboard, ideally with some sort of hinge. At
which point you've just re-invented the laptop form factor.
The usefulness of laptop form factor won't go away, People will just
start failing to recognize that it's just a laptop in new clothes with a
few more tricks.
As for the desktop OS, Windows has essentially no penetration on mobile,
while OS X and linux live on only in the core kernels of their mobile
counterparts.
All that is converging is the software UIs, where mobile devices will be
able to display apps appropriately both for constrained touchscreens and
larger monitors controlled by a keyboard/trackpad. Only in that last
sense are mobile devices converging, by adding software UIs to work on
large screens.
No, as you already pointed out yourself, the hardware capabilities are
converging as well.
And then you have on one hand the whole "hooking up a keyboard/mouse" to
a phone/tablet (and monitor too, HDMI-out has become pretty common on
Android)...
And on the other hand, you have laptops getting their mainboards moved
to the upper-half and becoming detachable from the bottom half, and
getting smaller, lighter, better battery life...
That...is form-factor convergence.
Of course, that's dependent on the phone/tablet folks actually
managing to pull it off. Which is certainly a possibility, I agree,
but I'm not convinced they'll necessarily manage to, at least not in
the short term.
It's around the bend and frankly should have been done sooner.
Never underestimate the power of corporate ineptitude ;)
MS, [...]
They certainly seemed to start on it first, but screwed it up in some
key ways. Not allowing the desktop on Windows RT was a big mistake,
which they appear to be sort of remedying with their recent
Continuum/Universal-app moves. Ironically, this was one of the few
cases when Microsoft was too early, because mobile devices were probably
not powerful enough when Windows 8 came out three years ago.
Yea, totally agree on this MS stuff. Pretty much the point I was making
about Win8/Win10.
Interestingly, Canonical could've beat everyone to the punch here.
They had what was basically "continuum for linux" more or less already
working, but then...they just...what, threw it in the trash bin or
something? I dunno, I don't quite get Canonical sometimes.
I get the sense that they're a small organization that bit off something
way too big for them.
Hmm, yea, that may very well be.
