On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 15:11:42 UTC, Joakim wrote:
On Sunday, 16 September 2018 at 10:25:30 UTC, Dave Jones wrote:
Some analysts have predicted that PC sales will plateau at
some point and if that's where we're at now then 30% drop in
shipments is not death of the market.
I see no reason why they would plateau, looks like wishful
thinking to me.
Might be, but so is trying to convince everyone your predictions
are correct so they will focus their work on the issues important
to you.
I think a large part of it is that PCs got fast enough for
most people about 7-10 years ago. So it was a combination of
mobile, and people no longer needing to get newer faster
machines. The upgrade cycle moved from "I need a newer faster
computer" to "I'll wait till my current system is worn out".
(For a lot of people anyway)
Sure, that's part of it, but that suggests that once
smartphones reach that performance threshold, they will replace
PCs altogether. I think we've reached that threshold now.
If it was just about performance, but it's not.
And just because there's been a trend for 5 or 6 years
doesnt mean it will continue so inevitably.
Sure, but these trends almost never reverse. ;)
It doesnt need to reverse for "the PC is dead" to be false.
Plateaus almost never happen, it's not the natural order of
things.
OK the market stabilises.
Because for about £300 you can get an intel NUC system with
120GB SSD, which is more powerful and more upgradeable than
your £700 mobile device. And some people still want that. And
because most people have more than one TV, some have multiple
phones, phones and tablets, and desktops, and multiple games
consoles. And they still use them all in different situations.
That's more on the high end, where people use many devices. On
the low- to mid-end of the market, where most of the sales
happen, people are happy to buy fewer devices that get the job
done.
Most households have more devices than ever before, and hardware
is only getting cheaper. The idea that people will have to choose
just one device is plainly wrong.
I find it strange that you think the PC won't also be rolled up
by mobile like this.
Can you put a 3GB hard drive in your phone? Or a high end
graphics card? Or a soundcard with balanced outputs?
Yes you can bring up examples of people who made mistakes
predicting the future but that works both ways. You're just
as guilty of seeing a two points and drawing a straight line
though them.
Except none of these examples or my own prediction are based
on simple extrapolation between data points. Rather, we're
analyzing the underlying technical details and capabilities
and coming to different conclusions about whether the status
quo is likely to remain. So I don't think any of us are
"guilty" of your charge.
Of course you are, you're making predictions and assuming the
trends will continue, you assume the technical details are all
important. Im saying they are only part of it, that people
have requirements / preferences outside of how powerful the
device is. Lots of people were predicting ebooks would kill
the real book market a few years back, turns out people still
prefer to have an actual paper book to read, ebooks peaked a
few years ago and real books have been in growth ever since.
That was people seeing a trend and assuming it would continue
just like you are.
No, print is pretty much dead, it's just hard to track because
so many ebooks have gone indie now:
https://www.geekwire.com/2018/traditional-publishers-ebook-sales-drop-indie-authors-amazon-take-off/
What are these magical "requirements/preferences" that you
cannot name, that you believe will keep print alive? That will
be really funny. :)
You obviously didn't research thoroughly enough, the site that
was the source for the geekwire article shows quite clearly that
print books still outsell ebooks almost twice over.
http://authorearnings.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Slide29.jpg
and yes that's with indie published books included.
Another interesting thing from that report was the average price
of indie ebooks was $2.95
http://authorearnings.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Slide26.jpg
So even selling ebooks for peanuts cant catch them up.
