I wholeheartedly agree with your thinking from the perspective of 'I want to
watch movies'.  Apple TV is a better instantaneous experience, albeit a much
more expensive one with less film choice - hence the dismal sales (o;

However, I see Netflix's ODM partnership with Roku as a hardware fix for a
weak spot in Netflix's experience.  Your Netflix DVD's play on the tv, but
up till now, the streaming Watch Now didnt.
Just to underline what Netflix sees as it core strength I took this from the
'Netflix Ready Device' faq
http://www.netflix.com/NetflixReadyDevices?tb=future&lnkctr=nfrdfuture2
" *How many choices are available to watch via a Netflix ready device?*

There are over 10,000 instant watching choices, but very few are new
releases. So instant watching is a great supplement to our DVD catalog of
100,000 titles, but it is not a replacement. You will want to use both.
Instant movies and TV episodes give you maximum spontaneity and DVDs give
you maximum choice."

To put that in to other words, Netflix's strength lie in its DVD catalog -
choice, not spontaneity.  Apple TV could be said to be spontaneity over
choice.  Netflix is providing existing customers with a fix.  Apple is
_trying_ to get their media server in to the living room.  Two different
feature set, business models & very different experiences.  I fail to see
how a $99 'decoder' can be compared to a $329 DVR & iTunes frontend.

I believe Netflix would be out of their minds to take on Apple TV in the
media server market, Apple would clean the floor with them.  That said,
Apple cant hope to reach the 8.5 million subscriber level Netflix has as the
current marketing isnt working.
That all said, I do accept I'm probably more than half wrong, not sure which
half though.

take care - pauric
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