On Oct 11, 2008, at 10:20 AM, Christina Wodtke wrote:
If I were Zuckerberg, I wouldn't put a timetable on finding a business
model. There are a number of them that might work and I assume
they'll try
them all. They've got enough money they have bought themselves time to
tune. Smart.
The timetable puzzled me too. If you don't know what your business
plan is, how can you know how long it will take to figure out what it
will be?
They *do* have enough money, but that money came at a price.
Zuckerberg, et al aren't running a charity. Those investors are
expecting a return. Many of those investors have shareholders
themselves, who are also expecting a return.
What did Zuckerberg promise them in terms of value and schedule?
That's the really puzzling thing. Did they buy in on pure hope?
I think it quite likely Facebook won't find a
business model that will make them massively profitable google-
style, and
they'll keep bebopping along with minor profits. Unless, of course,
they
do. And if they do trip over the right approach, they are poised to
maximize
it because they have the userbase in place.
Do you think that's how they pitched it to their investors? "We think
it's quite likely we'll never have a business model that gives you the
10x returns you're looking for, but if luck has it, we just might
stumble across one. Then, boy, won't *you* look really smart?!!?"
And here's my take. It's not like Facebook is flying under the radar
here. EVERYBODY is focused on every little thing they do. The smartest
business people in the world are thinking and talking about them.
And none of them have come up with a viable business plan yet. If they
can't come up with one, why do people think that folks within the
Zuckerberg empire can? That's the gamble that I'm just not getting.
I'm probably wrong (or, as some have pointed out, living in my own
theocracy). In 2 years and 10 months, the Zuckerberg team will
announce to the world a new strategy that will make them all
trillionnaires. And I'll be here, running my little business as I have
for 20 years, wondering how come I'm not cashing in on the big bucks.
Who wants to bet on that?
Jared
p.s. The original point to this entire conversation on this list is,
in the meantime, what do the newly-hired UX people at Facebook do to
ensure that every design decision supports the wont-exit-for-three-
years business model? http://is.gd/3djk
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