--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > A key aspect of programming in practice is the > reliable estimation of size, time and effort. It > seems like most people that are good at estimating > do so by partitioning the problem into smaller > pieces that can be handled more easily. [...]
This would be the rational, logical way of approaching it but in my experience (as one of the people who do it "wholistically") it doesn't work in practice. Projects requiring a reliable estimation tend to be those I do for other people. Partioning the problem in such cases is hard 'cause often the problem is not well understood yet (if ever!). Can one draw partioning lines on a fuzzy cloud of a problem? The answer is almost always "no", so I end up giving a "wholistic" estimate based on previous experience on similar projects...often it is a gross understimation because the politics of bidding on a contract say the guy who delivers in shorter time is "better". I've also noticed that the way I make estimates varies as a result of things that are not related to the problem at all, making the method of estimation purely ad-hoc. E.g if a classy young lady drives up to my office in a porsche, you can rest assured the estimate she gets won't be the same as any other (either it's too short 'cause one wants to impress, or its too long because, well, geeks need some love too, no?). By being who she is, she has changed the value of the estimate even before I knew what it was going to be. Heisenberg would be proud and at once disturbed! Missed milestones and postponed deadlines are the norm in this industry which suggests that this is a widespread problem. I too would love to see any research on estimation methods and their comparative accuracy...though I doubt such research could take into account should-be-irrelevant-but-still-relevant issues like classy young ladies in a porsche! Cheers, Eric M. ___________________________________________________________ New Yahoo! Mail is the ultimate force in competitive emailing. Find out more at the Yahoo! Mail Championships. Plus: play games and win prizes. http://uk.rd.yahoo.com/evt=44106/*http://mail.yahoo.net/uk ---------------------------------------------------------------------- PPIG Discuss List (discuss@ppig.org) Discuss admin: http://limitlessmail.net/mailman/listinfo/discuss Announce admin: http://limitlessmail.net/mailman/listinfo/announce PPIG Discuss archive: http://www.mail-archive.com/discuss%40ppig.org/