Thursday, November 29, 2007, 2:53:57 PM, Steve Brewer wrote:
SB> I wonder how many ecologists in the U.S., however, have considered
SB> that producing children is necessary to keep Social Security from 
SB> collapsing. ...

Steve,

I completely agree with you. However, although I certainly respect
people who don't want to have children on an individual basis, I can't
help but thinking that they're a tad selfish as an opinion group. Our
countries need a stable demographic structure to keep Social Security
and our economy running, but the demographic structure is actually
changing because we live longer than the previous generations. This
means that, even in case birth rate don't change, the number of
retired people is increasing as well as the per capita health
expenditure.

>From a U.S. point of view some people might consider a decrease in
birth rate as a minor issue if compared with global environmental
threats, but in Italy we're experiencing negative demographic growth
since many years and this has led to a continuous population decrease
and to an increased number of aged people who need more and more
cares.

In Italy - and in other European countries - negative population
growth rates are balanced thanks to increasing immigration rates.
Setting aside social and cultural issues, as a matter of fact 99.9%
immigrants don't care about carbon footprints, so they have (much)
more children than Italian and European families. Moreover, most
immigrants send money to their families in their home countries, where
this money is spent to cut forests, to burn more gasoline in old cars,
etc.

So, the equation "less children=smaller footprint" only holds for a
theoretic scenario, involving a very rich and completely isolated
country. I don't think such a place exists on this world, but, please,
point me to it in case you know one.

All the best,

Michele


--------------------------------
Michele Scardi
Associate Professor of Ecology

Department of Biology
University of Rome "Tor Vergata"
Via della Ricerca Scientifica
00133 Roma
Italy

http://www.mare-net.com/mscardi
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