burt wrote: > Thanks for the suggestions, and I'll try and give it some more > thought. All I honestly know is that my intuition tells me that the > fact this player got caught should be (it sems to me) a stong > indication that he probably cheated before.(The question was motivated > by a real-world experience).
"...a strong indication that he probably cheated before". ONLY under the assumption that he cheats at a constant rate thoroughout his career. Your argument is circular, he cheated now, therefore "he probably cheated before". I have no trouble visualizing the opposite scenario where this is the FIRST time he cheats. I cannot choose one scenario over the other without more information. -- Paige Miller Eastman Kodak Company paige dot miller at kodak dot com http://www.kodak.com "It's nothing until I call it!" -- Bill Klem, NL Umpire "When you get the choice to sit it out or dance, I hope you dance" -- Lee Ann Womack . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
