Gary Carson wrote:
>>try and give it some more
>>thought. All I honestly know is that my intuition tells me that the
>>fact this player got caught should be (it sems to me) a stong
>>indication that he probably cheated before.(The question was motivated
>>by a real-world experience).

> I would think that the relevant question is more What's the probablility he'll
> cheat again?

This would a the relevant question from a statistical point of view. 
But I don't think that's the point of view that the original 
question had. I get the strong impression that the original question 
is based on the fact that he caught someone cheating once, and now 
he wants to call into question a large amount of previous hands of 
cards that were played. I could speculate on the motive, but why 
bother? It's more of a human nature type of question.

> And that's more of a criminological question about recidivsm of card cheats
> than a statistics question.

In my resopnse to the original question, I felt this had nothing to 
do with statistics.

-- 
Paige Miller
Eastman Kodak Company
paige dot miller at kodak dot com
http://www.kodak.com

"It's nothing until I call it!" -- Bill Klem, NL Umpire
"When you get the choice to sit it out or dance, I hope you dance" 
-- Lee Ann Womack

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