Thanks for the responses guys. The ELO system does indeed give reasonably accurate estimates of the probability of winning. A simple logit model based on the difference in ELO rating will give a reasonable estimate of the probabilities of players winning.
I suppose what I am asking, in a sense, is could this prediction be improved by somehow accounting for the head-to-head record of the two participants in addition to the ELO rating difference. A corollorary to that is obviously whether the head-to-head effect is significant of itself. I am not a statistician (I'm an engineer) but I am numerate and am prepared to study the appropriate area. However I don't know what that area is! What would a suitable null hypothesis be? The motivation for the question by the way comes from the idea that styles of play may suit certain opponents, e.g. my style of play might be relatively ineffective against many players but very effective against a small number of players, some of whom may be significantly better (in the sense they are ranked higher) than me. I have a large database of matches (about 13,000 for about 600 players) where I have the ratings and the outcomes of the games. What I am looking for is some statistical analysis I can do to begin addressing the above question (although obviously looking at head-to-head rather than the rather intangible style issue) . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
