In message
<1114397781.7050411.1425662208729.javamail.zim...@comcast.net>, dated
Fri, 6 Mar 2015, Mike Sherman ----- Original Message -----
<msherma...@comcast.net> writes:
Re "...and dismissal of identifiable risks deemed conveniently unlikely
to occur."
This is a real issue in organizations, and was a key contributor to the
Columbia space shuttle disaster.
Terry Pratchett had an angle on this. 'Million-to-one chances happen
nine times out of ten.'
Experience suggests that a probability of 1 in 1 million is not
sufficient to assume that it will not occur in practice (e.g. Titanic).
1 in 1 billion is sufficient, but that means there is a large grey area
in between.
--
OOO - Own Opinions Only. With best wishes. See www.jmwa.demon.co.uk
When I turn my back on the sun, it's to look for a rainbow
John Woodgate, J M Woodgate and Associates, Rayleigh, Essex UK
-
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