I'm going to preface this as speculative, but it does seem to make sense to me. 
 YMMV

Now suppose I'm driving along at 65 mph and it says I have 100 miles left in 
the tank.   Now lets say I immediately slow down to 30 mph and all the sudden 
my energy usage/mile drops.   Now I should expect my range to jump up to 150 
miles left in the tank.   Now say a little bit later, I speed up to 80 mph.  
Now I should expect my range to jump down to 75 miles.   

But if you look at the graphs from Tesla, you see basically continuous lines 
and always too optimistic (up to the 400 milepoint). Now, you'd think if you 
were constantly monitoring the battery usage and the odometer, you'd eventually 
get the CORRECT slope or at least have data points which bracket the slope but 
yet it's consistently wrong.  In other words you expect "-Rated Miles/Mile to 
be 1, but for the first 400 miles it's constantly too high.   
(Again as Kevin showed in an earlier email about the IGN report)
http://i.imgur.com/5mHrgMu.png 

I'm going to suggest that they don't even track the "mileage" and instead the 
formula they use for rated miles is much simpler and something like this.  

Rated Miles = 265*(percent State.of.charge) * (C(Temperature) )  

Where C(T) represents a function that allows the Rated miles to decrease as the 
temperature goes down. 
(There's another part about the S.O.C where they also seem to keep 5% in 
reserve)

Now according to the NYT article the Temp started out at 30 F and according to 
Musk, the car's rated ranges started

at 265 miles   This would imply that C(30 deg F) = 100%.

Now after the car sat overnight, the Temperature was reported at 10 deg F.   
Furthermore the range was reported
at 20-25 miles.   Now looking at the SOC data, it looks like only went down to 
30%. S.O.C   
If you leave 5% in reserve this would indicate that C(10 deg F) = appx 33%.   
i.e. (  22.5/(265*.25) 

So could the function for C(T) be something as simple minded as this?(assuming 
T in Fahr)
1.0    (if T>30)
T/30 (if  0<T<30)
0.0  (if T<0)

(It also might explain the peculiar and rather drastic change in slopes 
observed between milepoints 400 and 470 because 
the temperature was rising.    )

Anyway it's just random speculation, but it seemed as good of explanation as 
any.   It would
indicate however that there is virtually no feedback back to the driver as to 
how his driving
habits are affecting his range, but on the plus side it indicates what is 
feasible at any point
in time.
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