damon henry wrote:
Have no fear, most who say that factory EVs don't really fit the original
spirit of this list were not around when this list started. Many of the
original members were involved with the factory EVs of the time. Classics
like the cheesewedge CitiCar or the Lectric Leopard. This list turns into
more of a DIY forum when there are no factory EVs being offered.
Damon, I think you have it exactly right. Those who want EVs just want
something that WORKS and is AFFORDABLE. If they can buy it, they will.
If they can't buy it, they will build their own.
Personally, I take the long view. I've "been around" long enough to
observe that EV interest runs in distinct up-and-down cycles of about
ten years each. There have been a dozen such cycles since 1900. Since
history is the best predictor of the future, I expect that we will see
more such cycles in the future.
The homebuilt-vs-factory EV situation illustrates an interesting aspect
of these cycles. To explain it, let's first consider something that
happens in the animal world. Suppose you are studying rabbit populations
in the prairie. You might think there was a stable number of rabbits
(like x rabbits per acre). But you'd find that the actual number of
rabbits oscillates wildly up and down over a many-year cycle.
So you study it a bit more, and discover that the fox population in that
area *also* oscillates up-down in the same fashion. But these two
oscillations are out of phase. They work like this:
- low rabbit population, low fox population
- rabbit population booms, due to low fox predation
- fox population booms, due to an abundance of rabbits
- rabbit population crashes, due to excessive fox predation
- fox population crashes, due to scarcity of game
...and the cycle repeats. There *is* no stable relationship between the
foxes and the rabbits.
I think the same thing happens with homebuilt vs. factory EVs:
1. Low point in EV cycle:
- No factory EVs; auto companies claim they can't work, won't sell.
- So hobbyists build their own EVs. The only EVs on the road are
conversions, or old factory EVs that somehow survived from the
previous cycle.
- People see that EVs actually work.
- Small EV conversion companies form to produce more EVs.
2. Rising point in EV cycle:
- Small EV converters grow, produce more EVs, and gain influence.
- Large organizations (government, automakers) see that EVs work.
- Public at large becomes aware of EVs.
- Governments create EV incentives (tax credits, rebates, mandates).
- Automakers grudgingly announce they'll have EVs "real soon now".
- Pundits tout EVs as the "next big thing".
3. Peak of the EV cycle:
- All the automakers have EVs (but in tiny numbers at high prices).
- EV conversion companies get run out of business by competition
from big automakers (can't match their quality, advertising,
engineering, economies of scale).
- Factory EVs gradually catch up to the number of homebuilt EVs,
EV conversions, and old factory EVs on the road.
4. Collapse of an EV cycle:
- Factory EVs outnumber homebuilt, conversion, and old factory EVs
on the road.
- Change in government ends EV mandates, tax credits, rebates, etc.
- Some kind of highly publicized disaster (fire, scandal, recall,
movie star gets killed in EV, prominent EV company goes broke).
- Disaster starts a panic; investors pull out all their EV funding.
- Pundits loudly shout down EVs; "We told you they'd never work".
- Automakers abruptly pull out of EVs (claim they're not profitable;
cancel production, recall leased vehicles). EV converters are
already gone. So no EVs available any more from anyone.
I suspect we are at present close to the peak of the current cycle. EV
hobbyists and EV converters face almost insurmountable pressure from the
auto company's sophisticated and highly subsidized EVs.
In fact, I suspect that Tesla and the $7500 tax deduction are "leading
the charge" in EVs. If Tesla stumbles, or if the government rescinds the
tax incentives, that could trigger the next collapse. GM, Ford, Nissan,
Mitsubishi, etc. would quickly decide EVs aren't profitable, and abandon
them in favor of whatever they think is the "next new thing" they can
make money on (hydrogen, natural gas, biofuels, etc...)
This may sound unduly pessimistic... However, I also see hope. Each
cycle is bigger than the last; more EVs get produced and sold, the
technology gets pushed a little farther ahead, batteries get better, and
EVs keep gaining on ICEs (whose technology is almost stagnant in
comparison). Things *are* changing -- but it's a LONG slow process.
Personally, I'm looking forward to the *next* EV cycle. It ought to be a
doozy! Maybe at last it will bring us truly affordable EVs. :-)
--
Humanity is acquiring all the right technology for all the wrong
reasons. -- R. Buckminster Fuller
--
Lee A. Hart, http://www.sunrise-ev.com/LeesEVs.htm
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