We are still in the innovator stage that's all. No speculation needed. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations
Sent from my iPad > On May 27, 2015, at 1:37 AM, EVDL Administrator via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org> > wrote: > >> On 26 May 2015 at 6:50, tomw via EV wrote: >> >> Plus today with instant everything, putting up with inconvenience is >> sooo yesterday. > > I think you're on to something here. > > The things that we like about EVs - the smoothness, the silence, the instant > torque, zero emissions, "refuel" at home - just don't seem to be all that > important to most people. Besides, in the last 20-30 years, ICEVs have > gotten better at a lot of these things. (Who would have thought it?) > > I think it's fair to say that consumers buy their vehicles for both rational > and emotional reasons. > > The rational factors are easy - cost, utility, convenience. > > EVs are going to lose on utilty, mostly because of their limited range. > > They shouldn't lose on cost, but most buyers don't think long-term and see > only the up-front cost. Without aggressive subsidies - and those are > subject to political whim - EVs are in trouble. > > Convenience? At the moment, how EVs fare depends on which you consider more > convenient, going to a gas station or remembering to plug it in. > > But something else might enter here. Consumers, especially wealthy ones, > perceive themselves as busy busy busy even when they actually have lots of > leisure. They embrace convenience and are willing to pay for it. I think > you're right that EVs will succeed as a vehicle class at least partly on how > universally convenient they are. > > One obvious way to increase EVs' convenience is for ICEVs convenience to > fall hard and fast. > > Buying fuel was hugely inconvenient in some areas of the US in the mid- > 1970s. In many areas, shortage-driven panic buying created blocks-long, > hours-long waiting lines at filling stations. College students earned > pocket money sitting in impatient and busy suits' cars, waiting for their 5 > or 10 gallon gasoline allotment. > > For many reasons, I don't think that that particular scenario is likely to > happen again. Fuel prices will eventually rise again, but that alone isn't > enough to make large numbers of people desert ICEVs for EVs. Look what > people are willing to pay for gasoline in Europe. > > So, let's think of some ways that EVs might become radically more > convenient, ways that ICEVs simply can't match. > > Here's one: transparent inductive charging. Your garage has a standardized > inductive charger in the floor; you park the car and it fuels itself without > any active participation from you. (I know about the cost and efficiency > issues. C'mon, dream with me for a minute. ;-) > > What if building codes required every new house or major renovation to > include a universal, standards-defined inductive EV charger in the garage > floor? Maybe you could include a square-area threshold at first, so that > they'd mostly go into more expensive houses where the cost would be a > trivial fraction. Mass production would eventually drive down the cost, and > the square-area threshold could be lowered. > > Public parking lots might also be reqired to provide some minimum percentage > of EV slots with this charging. Your EV could automatically sip electrons > while you shopped. The EV would have a unique ID tag. Each month the cost > would be billed to your credit card. You'd never touch a gas pump or a > charger cord. > > Ads for compatible EVs could crow, "No more smelly gas stations ever, and > you never have to plug it in!" > > Is this scheme really practical? Probably not. Passing legislation is a > high bar in the US these days, so public money for this would be hard to > get. Still, I've seen additions to building codes that add costs for > builders go through. IMO there's a faint glimmer of hope for getting > something like this into the codes - at least in some states. > > Something to think about. And anyway, we're dreaming here. ;-) > > Any more EV ultra-convenience ideas that ICEVs can't match? > > David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA > EVDL Administrator > > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = > EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = > Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not > reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my > email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . > = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = > > > _______________________________________________ > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub > http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org > For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA > (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) > _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
