Re: Are we simulated by some massive computer?

[Stathis Papaioannou]

On 25 April 2004 Kory Heath wrote:

QUOTE-
Not yet. We know that the bizarre, inconsistent worlds must exist if the 
Platonia idea is correct, but we (or at least I) don't currently know how 
likely they are. In Platonia, there are X number of possible-next-states 
from my current state. (For simplicity's sake, lets even say that X is a 
very very large finite number.) If a vast majority of these states show me 
sitting in my chair typing, with my computer not turning into a kangaroo, 
etc., then no, the fact that my world so far has not been bizarre and 
inconsistent does *not* cast doubt on the validity of the Platonia theory. 
In fact, if we can show logically, mathematically, or computationally (for 
me these are all ultimately the same thing) that a vast majority of my 
next-possible-states do in fact show me sitting in my chair typing, with 
very few computers turning into kangaroos, this would be an extremely strong 
reason to believe that the Platonia theory is correct, because it's survived 
a rather stringent falsification test.
-ENDQUOTE

This analysis is sound only in the common sense single world situation. You 
get into trouble if you try to use conventional probabilities if multiple 
histories/worlds/copies are allowed, as I tried to show with the 
teleportation example.

Suppose that the overwhelming majority of your next-possible-states are 
totally bizarre, according to the theory we are testing. If only one copy of 
you can exist at any one time, then the theory predicts that there is a 
billion to one probability that in the next second you will find yourself in 
a bizarre universe. As a matter of fact, as you read these words, you do not 
find that the world around you suddenly becomes bizarre. Therefore, the 
theory is most likely wrong.

Consider now a similar theory, but multiple copies of you are allowed. The 
theory predicts that there will be one billion branchings of the world in 
the next second, with each branch containing a person who shares all your 
memories up to that point. The theory also predicts, as above, that all but 
one of these worlds will be obviously bizarre. As a matter of fact, as you 
read these words, you do not experience the world around you suddenly 
becoming bizarre. But unlike the previous example, this is entirely 
consistent with the theory, which predicted that one version of you would 
continue in the world as per usual.

--Stathis Papaioannou

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