On 01 Nov 2013, at 08:06, Telmo Menezes wrote:
On Thu, Oct 31, 2013 at 6:54 PM, John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com>
wrote:
On Thu, Oct 31, 2013 at 1:04 PM, Bruno Marchal <marc...@ulb.ac.be>
wrote:
this distracts from the question asked, which concerns the first
person
pov, from the first person pov. That is the first person
experience. [...]
Comp accepts that both copies are equivalent (with respect to
identity)
continuations of the original, but the prediction bears on the
first person
experience.
It is a mystery that Marchal can not get it through his head that
copying a
person means there are now 2 identical first person experiences
because YOU
HAS BEEN DUPLICATED, and the 2 will remain identical until one sees
something that the other has not.
This has never been disputed by Bruno or anyone else, as far as I've
seen.
Please describe what you believe your experience will be after
duplication. Describe it from your point of view. If you do not accept
to do this you are just refusing to consider the thought experiment,
nor arguing against it.
If 100% was true, for P(W), we would have, in the iterated
version, the
history WWWWWWW... having a 100% probability, yet, all diaries
but one, will
contradict that prediction.
If "you" predicted that "you" will see Washington and "you" does see
Washington then the prediction that there was a 100% chance that
"you" will
see Washington
This a posteriori thinking is against the very concept of probability.
You can use it to refute the claim that if I throw a coin, the
probability that I see heads is 0.5. It becomes either 0 or 1.
Exactly what I said, before discovering your post, Telmo. Most
"argument" by Clark contradicts Everett, or even, like here, the
classical use of probability in statistics.
A long time ago, someone made the same critics, and conclude that the
very notion of probability should be abandoned.
Schmidhuber also get a similar conclusion, on this list, mainly that
all finite strings are predictable (but refused to answer when I asked
him the winning Lottery Ticket of the month).
Why people acts like that remains a mystery to me, although I have
many theories on this. One explains this behavior by the fear to be
shown having been wrong by influence. I have exactly that same problem
with the cannabis field. Even serious scientists can become irrational
about cannabis, and it is, it seems to me, because they can't accept
the idea that they might have been brainwashed. It is probably easier
to accept having done an error than to admit having been somehow
manipulated into doing that error, especially for rationalists.
Quentin is probably right, it might be just a question of pride.
Rationalists' pride, when they are not just shown wrong, but shown
influenced by authoritative arguments, or mundane gossips.
Bruno
"I hate spinach, and I will not try to taste it, as I might like it,
and I hate even more the idea that I might like spinach" (Bruno, in
Sylvie & Bruno, Lewis Carroll, (not the exact quote probably)).
was correct and it doesn't matter how many people who also
lay claim to the title "you" don't see Washington.
The proba concerns the first person experience that you will
live, and
recall in the next instants, by writing it in the diary.
The diary is useless because the diary was written by "you" and
contains
predictions about the further adventures of "you", but now there
are 2 (or
more) people with the title "you" and no way to determine which one
the
diary was referring to. And the diary is useless because good
predictions
have no more to do with identity or a sense of self than bad
predictions.
You can use the same argument to refute all of medical research. The
antibiotic either cures you or doesn't. By this reasoning, one might
as well take a tic tac to cure cancer.
Telmo.
John K Clark
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