All true JC, yet a world powered by atomic energy seems to await commercial 
fusion which out of my world view is a thing, despite recent progress, is a 
decades off. Nukes may have reduced the great war cycles, but Putin has 
restarted it again. Even with nukes. All it takes is a different set of values 
and culture and there we go. Comrade Xi seems of a similar mind set. For energy 
and prosperity it becomes a matter of getting along until that golden day 
arrives.
The societal impact of QC is sketchy to me, as it needs to be conformed to 
human impacts if it is to be better than conventional? It may hit this secretly 
with code cracking which for all I know may already be here? In that case all 
foreign policy would need to become visceral, in the sense that one knows 
everyone's intent, and thus adjusts accordingly. 
Not my idea of the 21st century, but then who asked my opinion?
American Serf, Spud100 (olde sod!)


-----Original Message-----
From: John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com>
To: spudboy...@aol.com
Cc: everything-list@googlegroups.com <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Sat, Jun 25, 2022 7:20 am
Subject: Re: Quantum Computing

On Fri, Jun 24, 2022 at 8:12 PM <spudboy...@aol.com> wrote:


> John, isn't it a wiser thing to consider impact over capability?

One thing at a time. Before you can have any impact you've got to have a 
capacity. And if large-scale quantum computers are practical, and it's getting 
to look like they are, then somebody somewhere is certain to make one. The best 
historical analogy is with nuclear energy, we've known since 1905 that matter 
contained a huge amount of energy but there didn't seem to be any practical way 
to get at it; that suddenly changed in 1938 when Uranium fission was 
discovered, after that the technological path one needed to travel to release a 
large amount of that energy very quickly was obvious. It was also very 
expensive, but it was only a matter of time before somebody somewhere did so. 
And just 7 years later somebody did. The moral is that if something very 
powerful can be made then like it or not it will be made.


> then in the 1950's the immensity of nuclear fission over carbon burning 
> should have led to an Atomic Age, but it didn't.  


Nuclear didn't beat out fossil fuels its true but you could still say we live 
in an Atomic Age because it still had an enormous impact on society.  
Considering the rate that wars were happening in the first half of the 20th 
century, if nuclear weapons were impossible or impractical to make I imagine 
we'd be in the middle of World War 5 or 6 about now; they wouldn't be nuclear 
wars but 20 million people died in the first world war and 50 million died in 
the second. John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
nwb

 

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