Bruce, Repeated experiments don’t change the core issue. Even if you perform an experiment a trillion times, in a single-history universe, there is still only one realized sequence of outcomes. That means certain possibilities with greater than zero probability will simply never happen—not just in a given run, but ever.
If the universe has a unique history and that history unfolds in a specific way, then all the unrealized possibilities are not just unrealized—they were never part of reality in any way. They had no causal link to what happened, no mechanism by which they could have happened, and no effect on the realized sequence of events. So what does it mean to say an event had a 10% probability if, across all of history, it never occurs? In a framework where only one history is real, probability becomes a misleading abstraction—it suggests possibilities that were never truly possible. The math remains consistent, but it describes nothing but an idealized concept detached from what actually exists. Contrast this with a framework where all possibilities are realized: probabilities describe distributions of real events across real histories. The meaning of probability is preserved because it refers to actual occurrences, not hypothetical ones that were never part of reality to begin with. In a single-history framework, probability becomes a story we tell ourselves about things that never were and never could be. That’s the absurdity. Quentin Le mer. 5 févr. 2025, 08:04, Bruce Kellett <[email protected]> a écrit : > On Wed, Feb 5, 2025 at 6:39 PM Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Brent, >> >> You say that unrealized possibilities are what probabilities quantify, >> but in a single-history framework, those possibilities never had any >> existence beyond the formalism. If only one history is real, then all other >> possibilities were never actually possible in any meaningful way—they were >> never real candidates for realization, just mathematical constructs. That’s >> not an emotive argument; it’s pointing out that the entire notion of >> probability in such a framework is detached from anything real. >> >> If probability is supposed to quantify real possibilities, then in a >> world where only one history exists for all eternity, what exactly is being >> quantified? If an event with a calculated probability of 50% never happens >> in this one history, then its true probability was always 0%. Your >> framework claims to allow for multiple possibilities, but in practice, it >> only ever realizes one, making the rest nothing more than empty labels. >> >> And you assert that alternatives have a "grounding in reality"—but what >> does that mean in a framework where they never actually happen? If they had >> a genuine grounding, they would have to be part of reality in some form, >> even if only probabilistically. But in a single-history framework, that >> never happens. The probabilities exist only in the mind of the observer, >> with no external ontological reality. They are tools that describe nothing >> but a retrospective justification of what already happened. >> >> The supposed "problem" in MWI—that all possibilities are >> realized—actually solves this issue. It gives probabilities a real basis in >> the structure of the universe rather than treating them as abstract >> bookkeeping. The probabilities describe real distributions across real >> histories rather than referring to things that were never real to begin >> with. >> >> The single-world view wants to use probability while simultaneously >> denying the existence of the things probability refers to. That’s not just >> emotive talk—it’s a contradiction at the foundation of the framework. >> >> Quentin >> > > Have you ever heard of repeated experiments? > > Bruce > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLRi46%2B4v7Si6zFBSijV9FeKFdBS3YzydLTA5Txe7Qx%2BzA%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLRi46%2B4v7Si6zFBSijV9FeKFdBS3YzydLTA5Txe7Qx%2BzA%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAMW2kArYjPAGfKUVgOc29bGidJ0qzGuwJUx_-P2vDfY-uNGb4A%40mail.gmail.com.
