Bruce, That still doesn't address the core issue. If the universe has a unique history and a finite existence, then there is a fundamental limit to the number of repetitions that can ever occur. There is no guarantee that all possible outcomes will ever be realized, no matter how large N is. Some events with nonzero probability simply will never happen. That alone is enough to undermine frequentism in a single-history framework—it relies on the assumption that probabilities reflect long-run frequencies, but if the history is finite and unique, the necessary "long run" does not exist.
Even in an infinite universe, if history is still unique, there is no mechanism ensuring that all outcomes occur in proportions that match their theoretical probabilities. Some possibilities with nonzero probability may remain unrealized forever, making their assigned probabilities meaningless in any real sense. They were never actual possibilities in the first place—just theoretical artifacts with no impact on reality. Your argument assumes that probabilities describe reality in the single-world framework, but without an ensemble where all possibilities exist in some way, this assumption collapses. Probabilities become detached from what actually happens and instead become abstract formalism with no grounding in the real world. That’s the problem: the single-world view wants to use probability theory as if all possibilities have meaning while simultaneously denying that they do. In contrast, in a framework where all possibilities are realized in different branches, probability retains its explanatory power. It describes actual distributions of outcomes rather than pretending that unrealized events still somehow "exist" in a purely mathematical sense. If the universe is unique, and history is unique, then probability has no true foundation—it’s just a game with numbers, untethered from what actually happens. Quentin Le mer. 5 févr. 2025, 10:48, Bruce Kellett <[email protected]> a écrit : > On Wed, Feb 5, 2025 at 7:53 PM Quentin Anciaux <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> Repeated experiments don’t change the core issue. Even if you perform an >> experiment a trillion times, in a single-history universe, there is still >> only one realized sequence of outcomes. That means certain possibilities >> with greater than zero probability will simply never happen—not just in a >> given run, but ever. >> > > In a long series of repeated experiments all possible outcomes are > realized a number of times that is reflective of their theoretical > probabilities. The sequence of N repetitions gives you an estimate of the > probability distribution. If every outcome is realized on every trial, you > do not get a unique insight into the underlying probability distribution, > because all possible sequences are realized, and this tells you nothing > about the true probabilities. Besides, there is no interaction between > branches and there is no causal link between outcomes. despite what you > claim to the contrary. > > Bruce > > If the universe has a unique history and that history unfolds in a >> specific way, then all the unrealized possibilities are not just >> unrealized—they were never part of reality in any way. They had no causal >> link to what happened, no mechanism by which they could have happened, and >> no effect on the realized sequence of events. >> >> So what does it mean to say an event had a 10% probability if, across all >> of history, it never occurs? In a framework where only one history is real, >> probability becomes a misleading abstraction—it suggests possibilities that >> were never truly possible. The math remains consistent, but it describes >> nothing but an idealized concept detached from what actually exists. >> >> Contrast this with a framework where all possibilities are realized: >> probabilities describe distributions of real events across real histories. >> The meaning of probability is preserved because it refers to actual >> occurrences, not hypothetical ones that were never part of reality to begin >> with. >> >> In a single-history framework, probability becomes a story we tell >> ourselves about things that never were and never could be. That’s the >> absurdity. >> >> Quentin >> > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLQYoyNvJPy3-r3sAexKY5%3DmHQ1A9CTn6mA7o215Mf4DvQ%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLQYoyNvJPy3-r3sAexKY5%3DmHQ1A9CTn6mA7o215Mf4DvQ%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAMW2kApo1D-8YN1rgKk%2BKCTNXm7WdQxuAX8rNx74NZkmq67%2BNg%40mail.gmail.com.
