--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "Rick Archer" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > From: FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > On Behalf Of shempmcgurk > Sent: Friday, September 12, 2008 11:40 PM > To: FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > Subject: [FairfieldLife] Matt Damon, bullshit artist > > > > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > <mailto:FairfieldLife%40yahoogroups.com> , "Rick Archer" <rick@> wrote: > > > > > http://www.searchme.com/#/0/ > <http://www.searchme.com/#/0/&pi=11/&stack=19fee/&ci=all/&session=0448 F> > &pi=11/&stack=19fee/&ci=all/&session=0448F > C61D4D > > 3B2FF77E257D06F3A27CF2284EB59/&vs=stacksState/ > > > > In the video, Matt Damon says if you look up the actuarial tables > there is a one in three chance that McCain will die within the next > four years. > > Damon then boldly challenges us to "do the actuarial tables". > > Well, I did...and Damon is off...WAY off. > > The actuarial tables supplied by the U.S. government indicate a one > in seven chance, NOT a one in three chance, as Damon claims. > > Take a look at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html > > If you add up the four years for males from ages 72 to 75 you get > 0.151985 which translates to about 1/7th or one in 7. > > Did you factor in his several bouts with serious skin cancer? He had a > growth removed just a month or so ago. >
No, I didn't. There are, literally, dozens of variables aside from age and gender (the only two variables in the actuarial charts I linked to above) that are factored into an individual's actuarial rating and, yes, cancer history is an important one. Another one is the lifespan of one's parents; for example McCain's 96 year old mother, who is still alive. However, one cannot take ALL the variables and make an effective rating for a given individual without having access to one's full medical records and history. I doubt the Hollywood star Matt Damon had access to those. Absent those records, one can only rely upon the general age/gender actuarial tables, which is what I linked to. By the way, another factor that would have to be considered would be profession. Professions such as airline pilot or trapeze artist gets special ratings (i.e. costs extra premium on an insurance policy). And, of course, one of the most dangerous jobs in the world is "president of the United States" because of 43 that have existed, 4 have been assassinated. But that "rating" would apply not only to McCain but to Obama as well. Damon probably meant that McCain had a 1 in 3 chance of dying over the period of 8 years, which is two terms as president. That would have been more accurate, but Damon made specific reference to one term. And, of course, a candidate for president only runs for one term at a time.
