--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "shempmcgurk" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "Rick Archer" <rick@> wrote: > > > > From: FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > On Behalf Of shempmcgurk > > Sent: Friday, September 12, 2008 11:40 PM > > To: FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > > Subject: [FairfieldLife] Matt Damon, bullshit artist > > > > > > > > --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com > > <mailto:FairfieldLife%40yahoogroups.com> , "Rick Archer" <rick@> > wrote: > > > > > > > > http://www.searchme.com/#/0/ > > > <http://www.searchme.com/#/0/&pi=11/&stack=19fee/&ci=all/&session=0448 > F> > > &pi=11/&stack=19fee/&ci=all/&session=0448F > > C61D4D > > > 3B2FF77E257D06F3A27CF2284EB59/&vs=stacksState/ > > > > > > > In the video, Matt Damon says if you look up the actuarial tables > > there is a one in three chance that McCain will die within the next > > four years. > > > > Damon then boldly challenges us to "do the actuarial tables". > > > > Well, I did...and Damon is off...WAY off. > > > > The actuarial tables supplied by the U.S. government indicate a one > > in seven chance, NOT a one in three chance, as Damon claims. > > > > Take a look at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html > > > > If you add up the four years for males from ages 72 to 75 you get > > 0.151985 which translates to about 1/7th or one in 7. > > > > Did you factor in his several bouts with serious skin cancer? He > had a > > growth removed just a month or so ago. > > > > No, I didn't. > > There are, literally, dozens of variables aside from age and gender > (the only two variables in the actuarial charts I linked to above) > that are factored into an individual's actuarial rating and, yes, > cancer history is an important one. > > Another one is the lifespan of one's parents; for example McCain's 96 > year old mother, who is still alive. > > However, one cannot take ALL the variables and make an effective > rating for a given individual without having access to one's full > medical records and history. > > I doubt the Hollywood star Matt Damon had access to those. > > Absent those records, one can only rely upon the general age/gender > actuarial tables, which is what I linked to. > > By the way, another factor that would have to be considered would be > profession. Professions such as airline pilot or trapeze artist gets > special ratings (i.e. costs extra premium on an insurance policy). > And, of course, one of the most dangerous jobs in the world > is "president of the United States" because of 43 that have existed, > 4 have been assassinated. > > But that "rating" would apply not only to McCain but to Obama as well. > > Damon probably meant that McCain had a 1 in 3 chance of dying over > the period of 8 years, which is two terms as president. That would > have been more accurate, but Damon made specific reference to one > term. > > And, of course, a candidate for president only runs for one term at a > time. >
He probably misread: http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=253B8DF9-18FE-70B2- A8961A86DC5B16C7
