Bush may spearhead major tax reform that provides substantial growth
impetus to the economy. Proposals may include substantially reducing
one of the biggest sinkholes for productive capital, the home mortgage
deduction, and  offsetting that with elimination of double taxation of
investment income -- another current drain on productive capital. A
win/win tradeoff for long-run economic growth. Also proposed are the
elimination or restriction of tax preferences / incentives already
embedded in the law -- essentially corporate welfare -- this along
with the resulting simplification of the tax code is another great
boon for economic growth.


Bush Panel May Curb Tax Breaks for Homeowners, Health (Update3)

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's tax advisory panel,
rejecting a fundamental overhaul, agreed to recommend limiting tax
breaks for homeowners and employer- provided health-care benefits to
help pay for repealing the alternative minimum tax.

The panel, meeting in Washington today, agreed the current $1 million
cap on deductible mortgage interest should be reduced, possibly to
about $350,000, and that the deduction should yield no more than a 25
percent tax savings, down from a top savings now of about 35 percent.

The panel also said it would probably recommend capping tax deductions
for employer-provided health-care plans. Current law allows employers
to deduct the value of premiums paid on behalf of their workers
without the benefit being considered taxable income to the employee.
The panel discussed placing the cap at the maximum amount the federal
government pays in premiums for its workers, currently about $11,000.

``These are the things we're looking at,'' said panel Vice Chairman
John Breaux, a Democrat and former senator from Louisiana. ``We have a
concept. We know where to go. We just don't have the details.''

Both changes would preserve the incentives for lower-and middle-income
workers while curbing them for wealthier Americans who are getting a
disproportionate benefit, panelists said.

Breaux said such ``tough choices'' would raise ``a generous amount''
of taxes to help offset the $1.3 trillion cost of repealing the
alternative minimum tax, he said. The minimum tax, imposed in 1969 to
ensure that 200 wealthy families didn't escape tax with excess
deductions, is now forcing millions of middle- income families to pay
higher taxes because it was never indexed for inflation.

No Sales Tax

The panel decided not to endorse a national sales tax in its final
recommendations and most panel members expressed reservations about a
European-style value-added tax, which is in place in most
industrialized countries.

Both systems would disproportionately hurt the poor, panelists said,
and some members such as Chairman Connie Mack, the former Republican
senator from Florida, and former Minnesota Representative Bill Frenzel
said they worry a value-added tax would make it too easy for the
government to raise money and increase spending programs.

Mack asked the panel's staff to devise a specific proposal that would
layer a value-added tax on the current system and reduce individual
and corporate income tax rates.

Still, he said that as the panel's work begins to wrap up, it's
looking more and more to making changes within the current system.

Value-Added Tax

``We're getting focused down on the income tax here,'' Mack said. In a
later interview, he added, ``I would be surprised if we were to
conclude that we want to offer a value-added tax proposal to the
president.''

The panel increasingly is looking to eliminate or restrict tax
preferences already embedded in the law. David Walker, the head of the
Government Accountability Office, said Sept. 23 that uncollected
revenue because of the incentives tripled since 1974 to $730 billion.
The biggest embedded tax breaks subsidize housing and health care,
Walker said.

The details of the mortgage interest and health care proposals will be
ironed out next week, Mack said. He said the proposals are ``clearly
redistributing'' the tax benefits for homeownership and health care to
lower-income Americans.

Lower-Income Homeowners

Tax breaks for homeownership particularly help the wealthy while
lower-income people don't get enough benefits, said panelists such as
Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment officer at San Francisco-based
Charles Schwab Corp. The current incentives, including the fact that
most home sales are tax-free, are driving up home prices, making them
unaffordable or pushing lower-income borrowers to take out risky
mortgages.

``We are starting to see some significant pain here,'' Sonders said.

The panel agreed to a proposal by former IRS Commissioner Charles
Rossotti to make it easier for lower income Americans to get a tax
break for donating money to charity.

Investment Income

The panel may compensate wealthier Americans who lose some of those
benefits by reducing or repealing taxes on investment income. Mack
said that proposal would be discussed at the panel's final meeting on
Oct. 18. The panel is due to make its final recommendations to the
Treasury Department by Nov. 1. Its report will serve as a blueprint
for a comprehensive proposal by Bush to overhaul the tax code as early
as next year. Bush appointed the nine-member panel in January.

Panel member John Poterba, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology in Cambridge, presented a subcommittee's findings on the
ramifications of changing to the mortgage interest deductions.
Reducing to about $300,000 or $350,000 the cap on mortgage interest
deduction and limiting the tax savings yield would preserve the
benefits for the middle class, he said.

A person who takes out a mortgage that exceeds the cap would lose
deductions on excessive amounts, while those in top tax brackets would
only get a maximum 15 or 25 percent deduction, depending on where the
panel ultimately sets the cap. Panelists also discussed converting the
deduction to a credit, which would allow the 70 percent of Americans
who don't currently itemize to claim the break for the first time.

Transition Period

Poterba suggested, and other panel members agreed to recommend, an
extended transition period during which homeowners could take
advantage of laws as they existed when they bought their homes ``so
we're not changing the rules of the game for people out there.''

Linda Goold, a lobbyist at the National Association of Realtors in
Washington, said the panel is wise to consider an extended transition
period if it changes tax incentives for homeownership ``as any change
is likely to have a winners and losers effect.''

She said the group was reserving judgment on the panel's
recommendations until a final report is issued, but said it is
concerned that lowering the mortgage interest cap may have an uneven
impact around the country, hurting states like California that have
higher housing costs more than those with more affordable housing,
such as Indiana.

Earlier, the panel agreed to curb tax preferences for
employer-provided health care.

Former Federal Trade Commission Chairman Tim Muris, a member of the
panel, said the change would end subsidies that favor wealthier
Americans. If adopted, the change would increase taxes on workers
whose employers provide them health plans that are more valuable than
those offered government workers.

`Subsidy'

``It obviously means that the incentive -- the subsidy if you will --
to take a policy above the cap will be removed and therefore there
will be people who will be much more sensitive to that,'' Muris said.

Tax preferences for health care are the largest incentives in the
current tax code, and American workers will save $1.9 trillion over
the next decade by avoiding taxes on the value of their
employer-provided premiums.

There is no consensus about whether to also restrict the deduction
employers take for providing coverage, Breaux and Mack said after the
meeting.

``How can you do it one way and not the other?'' Breaux asked.

Breaux said he realized both proposals may lack political appeal in
Congress, though he said that wasn't the panel's concern. ``Our job is
to make bold proposals without regard of the politics,'' he said.

Mohit Ghose, vice president of public affairs at America's Health
Insurance Plans, a trade group in Alexandria, Virginia, said a recent
poll of 400 people commissioned by his organization concluded voters
want to preserve tax preferences for health care.

``Voters are sending a very clear message that they do not support
changing the tax status of employer-sponsored or employer- provided
health care.''






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