--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, akasha_108 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Here are annual % change figures for DC violent crimes (and per > 100,000 pop figures). Its interesting to see the big swings. This > underscores the fact that there are probably a number of factors > driving crime levels. If these are not controlled in the analysis, > short term swings, annual, but most certainly 8 week periods, can be > due to factors totally unrelated to the "intervention".
It's my impression that controlling for these factors was precisely what the researchers were attempting to do with their statistical methodology. Box-Jenkins analysis--does that ring a bell? I believe that was also involved. Just remembered it this instant. I have no idea what it is. > Also, note that in 1992, the year preceeding the study, there was over > a 15% increase in crime. The year before was almost 0. So there seems > to be some snapback effect, high levels may cause more police > crackdowns, higher funding levels etc the following year. > > The Me study "indicated" a 25% drop in crime over 8 weeks. This by > itself should amount to about a 4% decrease in the annual rate. But > it went up 3%. But the next year with no ME effect, crime decreased > over 8%. Could that have been the abortion effect you keep touting kicking in? Though having weekly figures would be best, even with annual > numbers a 4% impact should be discernble. > > Of course, these figures need to controlled for weather, LE fund, > police levels, etc. It may mot be too hard to find that data on-line > (volunteers?). Having such, we can all all run some regressions on it, > and introduce the ME year as a dummy variable (a standard way to > assess if an impact or intervention resulted in a statistically > significant effect -- and to see how large the effect was.) It could > be a fun exercise and help raise the level of understanding about this > type of analysis. > > > > 1960 553.697 > 1961 587.861 6.170 > 1962 605.867 3.063 > 1963 593.985 -1.961 > 1964 632.673 6.513 > 1965 722.790 14.244 > 1966 885.520 22.514 > 1967 1143.634 29.148 > 1968 1505.562 31.647 > 1969 2135.088 41.813 > 1970 2226.805 4.296 > 1971 2170.580 -2.525 > 1972 1685.428 -22.351 > 1973 1558.445 -7.534 > 1974 1603.043 2.862 > 1975 1774.302 10.683 > 1976 1481.339 -16.511 > 1977 1426.522 -3.701 > 1978 1411.721 -1.038 > 1979 1608.689 13.952 > 1980 2010.601 24.984 > 1981 2274.843 13.142 > 1982 2123.138 -6.669 > 1983 1915.409 -9.784 > 1984 1721.509 -10.123 > 1985 1624.760 -5.620 > 1986 1505.272 -7.354 > 1987 1610.289 6.977 > 1988 1921.613 19.333 > 1989 2141.887 11.463 > 1990 2458.230 14.769 > 1991 2453.344 -0.199 > 1992 2832.767 15.466 > 1993 2921.799 3.143 > 1994 2662.632 -8.870 > 1995 2661.372 -0.047 > 1996 2469.797 -7.198 > 1997 2024.197 -18.042 > 1998 1718.547 -15.100 > 1999 1627.746 -5.284 > 2000 1507.886 -7.364 > 2001 1736.729 15.176 > 2002 1637.861 -5.693 > 2003 1608.139 -1.815 > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/JjtolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> To subscribe, send a message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Or go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ and click 'Join This Group!' Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/FairfieldLife/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
