With regard to our recent discussion about Apple...

Larry
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TECH INVESTOR from CNN/Money and Business 2.0
Monday, September 16, 2002

Apple's scary season

Market share is down, Microsoft is upset, and Quark is
nowhere to be seen. The company has some mean challenges
to overcome.

By Eric Hellweg

On the face of it, Apple's new push into consumer
services amid the protracted computer market downturn is
a smart move. The margins on services, after all, are
higher than on hardware. But Apple's two new services --
iCal (a calendar program), and iSync (backup software)
-- are joining the .Mac (formerly iTools) suite of offerings,
which until now has been free.

Starting Sept. 30, however, .Mac, which also offers e-
mail, online storage, backup software, and virus
protection, will carry a price tag of $100 per year.
When Apple [AAPL] announced the service at Macworld this
summer, the faithful "didn't understand the move," says
Carl Howe, a Forrester analyst. "They thought it was a
lot of money."

Not just that; moving from free to paid services has
proved treacherous. Why should it be any different for
.Mac, especially since some of the services, like e-
mail, are available elsewhere for free, and others, like
storage, have been a tough sell to consumers? Success is
by no means ensured.

On top of that, Apple's timing seems off. Just as its
overall market share is hitting new lows -- 2.6 percent,
by Giga Information Group's most recent count -- it is
forcing an upgrade to OS X even though one of the most
popular software programs for Mac isn't yet available
for that operating system. And its vital relationship
with Microsoft has hit a snag. Apple faces a challenging
chapter in its corporate history.

Consider the upgrade. Apple just announced that starting
in January, all its new machines will run exclusively on
OS X (previously, users could boot up in either OS X or
"Classic," or OS 9, mode). While it might seem natural
that new computer purchasers would want the latest
software, here's the rub: The makers of Quark Express,
the popular desktop publishing program that ushers Apple
into many corporate markets, have yet to release an OS X
version and won't say when one will be ready.

And the matter of Microsoft [MSFT] and Apple's always-
rocky relationship is not trivial. A key five-year
contract between the companies has just expired. In
August 1997, Microsoft invested $150 million in Apple
and agreed to develop future versions of its Office
productivity suite for the Apple OS for the next five
years. Microsoft spent a lot of time and money to create
Microsoft Office for OS X and reportedly feels Apple
hasn't done enough to promote it.

Microsoft's Kevin Browne complained to News.com that
Apple spent "20 times" more money advertising the iPod
than it did marketing OS X. Apple CEO Steve Jobs needs
Bill Gates & Co. on his side; plenty of potential Mac
buyers could make the switch to a Wintel machine if they
can't use Microsoft's leading productivity suite.

If the .Mac services don't take off, if Quark doesn't
meet the January deadline, and if Microsoft decides not
to renew its pact with Apple, 2003 will be a hell of a
tough year for the company. With so many fires to put
out around him, Jobs is in danger of losing his focus.
And that could be about the worst thing for Apple.

###

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