Phil, I have been thinking about your comment that you will say something with implications and nobody responds, like your comment about an economic expansion based on our success till we collapse our environment by eating up our own surround. And then you raise the question of bomb hardening of buildings...
What of the work of Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies..? To ideas he has 1. societies overspend on infrastructure, and infrastructure costs rise faster than GDP, till all surplus is used up and a cost overshoot happens.. 2. Elites own the infrastructure business and so are motivated to not cut back on costs. Your two ideas seem to fit this. Can a smarter human community avoid the evolutionary failures? Any contact with Tainter? I really admire his work. He has been at the SF Institute.. Doug Carmichael -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Phil Henshaw Sent: Saturday, December 09, 2006 10:58 AM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Democracy and evolution well... sort of... For one of a million examples, if we multiply our impacts on the earth by adding 10 billion people this century, how much is that relieved by sending 50 or 100 people off to live somewhere else if they can??? Sometimes we should look at the numbers and the timing of things. It may raise more questons than it answers,... but another one I like is estimating the value of the bomb hardening of federal buildings, like the one I'm building now, a big courthouse. It probably adds at least 10 million to the cost. If you guess there are at least 5000 higher priority targets for terrorists in the US than a courthouse in Mississippi, and terrorists wipe out one a year like clock work, that means it'll be at least 5000 years before they get around to mine. Given that the lifetime of the building is expected to be 100 years it's apparent that nature will build and destroy it at least 50 times before a terrorist does, and the lost opportunity cost of $10 million for 5000 years the way you normally calculate it at 3.5% return is 1.8*10^84. That's a lot of bread!! Phil Henshaw ¸¸¸¸.·´ ¯ `·.¸¸¸¸ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 680 Ft. Washington Ave NY NY 10040 tel: 212-795-4844 e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] explorations: www.synapse9.com > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Marcus G. Daniels > Sent: Saturday, December 09, 2006 12:28 AM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Democracy and evolution > > > Phil Henshaw wrote: > > >We're simply not making a world that's possible to operate in a huge > >variety of ways. > > > > > Here's one way to delay the apocalypse.. > http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/11/30/space.hawking.reut/index.html ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org -- No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.432 / Virus Database: 268.15.15/580 - Release Date: 12/8/2006 12:53 PM -- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.432 / Virus Database: 268.15.15/580 - Release Date: 12/8/2006 12:53 PM ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
