Thus spake Phil Henshaw circa 10/07/2008 12:15 PM: > Well, the reliance on competence is relative to the difficulty of the task. > As our world explodes with new connections and complexity that's sort of in > doubt, isn't it? Isn't Taleb's observation that when you have increasingly > complex problems with increasingly 'fat tailed' distributions of correlation > then you better not rely on analysis? Anyone who takes that job is > probably running into 'black swans' aren't they?
Of course more complex processes mean more difficulty in handling them. But that's what "expertise" is all about. The more difficult the handling, the more one needs expertise. The simpler the processes, the more one can rely on yokels or algorithms. So, I think the opposite of your conclusion is justifiable: The more complex the processes, the more powerful the "skill set" sales pitch becomes because the customers are aggressively hunting for expertise. But even in a very complex domain, regular, somewhat predictable patterns of observation/manipulation can yield success, despite the occult possibility of unexpected wonky trajectories. And people who have those patterns of observation/manipulation down pat are also experts. They just run the risk of being wrong when/if the system does happen to take a wonky trajectory. There's no reason to avoid relying on historically successful patterns of control. You just have to accumulate enough momentum while successful to survive the black swans. The trick is that when experts sell themselves to you, they tend toward optimism (and underestimate the risks) because they don't eat their own dog food ... they won't really suffer the consequences the customer will suffer when their expertise fails. They _tend_ to promise what they really can't deliver ... or they're extremely vague about what they promise so they can hold up whatever they happen to deliver as a refined version of what they promised ... like politicians and outsource code shops. In contrast, if your "skin is in it", then you tend to be a bit more pessimistic (and conservative) with what you promise. -- glen e. p. ropella, 971-219-3846, http://tempusdictum.com ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
