Personally, I find polls confusing. I like this page: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
that projects multiple polls down to a simpler space. Best I can tell, the error for the ABC/WaPo poll is is 4 points, the Pew poll is 3 points, and Rasmussen's is 3 points. Even ignoring how the questions are worded and asked and their domains (RV/LV, demographics, geography, etc.), we see a lot of wiggle from poll to poll. The most interesting thing to me are the correlations between who's responsible for the poll, their political bias, and the results of the poll. It would be interesting to see how much and in what direction each wiggles over time. E.g. does Rasmussen wiggle _more_ than Pew? Or do WaPo polls wiggle with a skewed distribution? It's obvious that statistics are lies. But perhaps the statistics of the statistics would show patterns in they lying that would allow one to spot lying trends. Owen Densmore wrote at 03/14/2012 10:32 AM: > This: > > > http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/poll-obama-leads-gop-candidates-head-head-contests-151032764.html > is an interesting Pew poll on the whole election scene, Republican > primary as well as an Obama second term. > > I'm a bit surprised about the Health Care tie, although is makes sense > if one compares other alternatives that at least approach a single payer. > > -- Owen > > Quote: > > President Barack Obama is leading all of the Republican presidential > candidates in head-to-head match-ups, according to a poll released > Wednesday by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. > > <http://www.people-press.org/2012/03/14/romney-leads-gop-contest-trails-in-matchup-with-obama/> > > A national survey taken March 7-11 showed Obama leading Romney by 12 > percentage points (54-42) and even further ahead of Santorum with 57 > percent of support to Santorum's 29 percent. Those numbers are > likely to shift as Republicans rally around a single candidate in > the coming months, but as a snapshot, the data suggest a brighter > scenario for Obama than in previous polls. > > Bullet Point Headings (expanded in article): > > Obama's approval rating rises to 50 percent > Romney's national lead widening among Republican primary voters > Americans think Obama will win a second term > A majority of Americans have an unfavorable view of the Republican > candidates after a long primary > Voters don't know that Santorum is Catholic > Republicans struggling with women and minorities > Nation split over federal health care overhaul > > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org -- glen ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
