Re: [FRIAM] Celebrating the Higgs - explaning and predicting

Wed, 11 Jul 2012 10:04:08 -0700 

Nick (aka NST) -



One possible response to this comment might be to just tell me to piss 
off until I have read the article you are referring to.



I think you caught the implications without having read the specific 
article that I recommended.  We are obviously wandered into territory 
which you have explored before... I definitely welcome your weighing in 
here.


As argued in this article <http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/1/9.html>,

Which I just read.   I was previously not familiar with JASS.
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/1/9.html


the disassociation of predictive and explanatory power seems misguided.
    http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/1/9.html



 I suppose a statistical function of many observational variables could 
have no explanatory power beyond the many variables on which it is 
based, but then it would only predict what it already knew.  It would 
"just" be an intervening variable, and not a hypothetical construct, at 
all.   As we have agreed, some explanations can have "facetious" 
content, that is not predictive, but that content is not really 
explanatory, either.  Darwin certainly did not believe that Nature was a 
breeder who chose the better adapted individuals for breeding.


Quoting NST (you) from the article:

    "Modeling is the systematic deployment of the human capacity for 
metaphor and is central to all scientific activity. Models don't stand 
or fall on their detailed verisimilitude, but on their capacity to 
capture the essence what is already known about a phenomenon and to 
generate expectations concerning what more might be discovered if the 
scientist were to look where the model pointed."




This point is a very key one IMO...  it is roughly what I base my own 
work in the development and application of Metaphor (Complex Metaphors 
and Metaphor Complexes) in Information/Data Visualization and Visual 
Analytics.




I *think* that what we are discussing here is the role of *explanation* 
in Science?  I think what you are referring to as "facetious" content 
above (e.g. Darwin's description of Nature as an animal/human husband, 
selecting individuals for selective breeding...) is merely an extreme 
end of the use of analogy to explain.   I presume that Darwin's choice 
of analogy was deliberately extreme to make it as familiar as possible 
to the totally uninitiated.  To those already somewhat on board with the 
general model, I presume they *all* dispensed with the misunderstandings 
implied.




We should perhaps talk more about his offline as I can already hear poor 
Doug's eyeballs rolling in his sockets, but I would like to elaborate 
for/with you what I mean by Metaphor Complexes...  as they may be 
directly responsive to this problem of "facetious" content.   In 
particular, if we admit to a whole series of layers of explanation from 
the most fanciful but accessible to the most complete and accurate but 
mundanely obscure.   My interest is to build a scaffold from the most 
fanciful to the most mundane, or the most accessible to the least in the 
interest of A) Helping an individual build a mental (and possibly 
mathematical) model of a phenomena for themselves in the pursuit of 
exploration and discovery in some phenomenological domain; and B) 
helping said individual blaze a trail that others can follow from an 
accessible if fanciful explanation to a more complete and accurate if 
obscure (and presumably useful one).    Perhaps what I'm suggesting is 
to build a stack of models that span the spectrum from explanatory to 
predictive, fanciful to mundane.




For this I need to retain the distinction.  I would prefer to think of 
my Metaphor Layers as various renderings or projections of aspects of a 
*single* model which has *all three* Explanatory, Descriptive, and 
Predictive qualities.



- SAS


Nick

PS And isn't  "real existence" the ultimate hypothetical construct?


*From:*friam-boun...@redfish.com [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] 
*On Behalf Of *ERIC P. CHARLES

*Sent:* Tuesday, July 10, 2012 2:41 PM
*To:* Steve Smith
*Cc:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Celebrating the Higgs - explaning and predicting

Steve,

Interesting paper, but I'm not sure if I follow. The basic argument 
seems to be that we often explain things by imagining (with the help 
of statistics) hypothetical constructs that cannot be directly 
measured. As those constructs can't be measured directly, they don't 
help us predict things. Thus, predictive models are limited to using 
things that actually exist, while explanatory models are not so limited.



That seems like a really good argument for coming up with better 
explanations, not an argument for distinguishing and reifying two 
distinct modeling tasks.



This is a topic I am quite interested in. I would presume that an 
ideal explanatory model would be identical to an ideal predictive 
model, though I grant that non-ideal cases might differ. What am I 
missing?


Eric




On Tue, Jul 10, 2012 12:37 AM, *Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com 
<mailto:sasm...@swcp.com>>* wrote:


Bruce -

I second the motion (very good post)!


Mendeleev's Periodic Chart was *my* first introduction (back when) to 
the very concept of having a predictive model that was (almost) 
entirely void of explanatory ability (as it stood when constructed).  
I found the notion *fascinating* and it drove me into the field of 
Visual (Perceptual) Analytics many years later... seeking patterns 
that yield useful prediction without necessarily waiting for an 
explanatory model.



For those vaguely interested in the philosophical underpinnings of 
science, it's methods and utility, I recommend Galit Schmueli's 
(George Washington U's) paper on Predictive vs Explanatory Models (as 
well as *Descriptive* models)...


arxiv.org/pdf/1101.0891




      


    Thanks! Glad you liked it!


      


    I have long been bemused by the strong parallels among the various

    tales I was able to tell in that post.


      


    Bruce


      


    On Mon, Jul 9, 2012 at 4:43 PM, Pamela McCorduck<pam...@well.com>  wrote:


          


        Bruce, that blog post is marvelous in its simplicity and power.


          


        Pamela


          

          

          


        On Jul 9, 2012, at 2:39 PM, Bruce Sherwood wrote:


          


        See my blog:


          


        
http://matterandinteractions.wordpress.com/2012/07/09/the-higgs-boson-and-prediction-in-science/


          


        Bruce


          


        On Sun, Jul 8, 2012 at 10:18 PM, Owen Densmore<o...@backspaces.net>  
wrote:


          


        Lets chat about the Higgs discovery, its likely-hood of being correct, 
and


          


        the impact it will have going forward .. at the next Friam @ St Johns.


          

          


        Could someone see if Hywel White is available .. or anyone you know 
who'd


          


        like to hold forth on the topic!


          

          


           -- Owen


          

          


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        "Im Deutschen lügt man, wenn man höflich ist."


          


        "In German, if one is polite, one lies."


          


        Goethe, "Faust"


          

          


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Eric Charles

Professional Student and
Assistant Professor of Psychology
Penn State University
Altoona, PA 16601



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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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