On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html
Very nice presentation. Thanks, Marcus! On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY > favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where their > mouths are were saying: > > https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ That's only 1 market. Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this list?) aggregates some markets: http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ChartPres.png But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of course, in various amounts. So, it's not clear whether these markets are predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be. > Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"? There sure is > a lot of volatility! My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the late-comers digging into the subject. Anyone who has been paying attention to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed their opinion. More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't affect that. But those who only started really paying attention last month may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's and Trump's foibles and qualities. The falsifying question would be: What % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started digging? I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also forget where I learned about that one. [sigh] > Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and > automatic ballot inclusion next round. It would be great to see the Green party get the funding. I wouldn't celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though. -- ␦glen? ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
