Arghhh, I meant to write that I’ve warmed to the idea of mandatory voting, not warned. The perils of typing on a phone.
On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 9:40 PM Gary Schiltz <g...@naturesvisualarts.com> wrote: > I think that Republicans make up way less than half of the population, but > the people who are traditionally less inclined to vote, would vote Democrat > if they voted. This is responsible for Republicans lately getting very > slightly over half the votes cast. I further believe that most of the > newly motivated voters come from this heretofore underrepresented left > leaning group, hence the likelihood of the Democratic margin of victory > being larger this year. Whether that implies a correlation between turnout > and margin of victory, I will leave it to the statisticians to argue over. > > Incidentally, I have warned to the idea of mandatory voting, as we have > here in Ecuador, and I believe in Australia as well. Without a “papel de > votación”, i.e. a certificate that proves that you voted in the > previous election, you have to pay a fine in order to get government > services such ad drivers licenses. > > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:16 PM Roger Critchlow <r...@elf.org> wrote: > >> I would think that the more people who vote the less likely a tie or >> close outcome becomes, simply by the larger number of ways you can miss >> with more votes in play. >> >> -- rec -- >> >> >> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020 at 8:17 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> N = 3 is slightly better. But I don't have time or incentive to do a >>> detailed statistical analysis. >>> >>> --- >>> Frank C. Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >>> >>> 505 670-9918 >>> Santa Fe, NM >>> >>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:14 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> In 1964 Johnson beat Goldwater by 60 to 40. The Kennedy/Nixon and >>>> Gore/Bush elections were extremely close. In all three elections the >>>> turnout was between 35 and 40 percent. >>>> >>>> --- >>>> Frank C. Wimberly >>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >>>> >>>> 505 670-9918 >>>> Santa Fe, NM >>>> >>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 6:00 PM Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> I'm saying that in this election there will be high turnout and not a >>>>> very close election. >>>>> >>>>> --- >>>>> Frank C. Wimberly >>>>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,++Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >>>>> >>>>> 505 670-9918 >>>>> Santa Fe, NM >>>>> >>>>> On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:59 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <geprope...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> So, what about the question I asked? You have no opinion on whether >>>>>> high turnout negatively or positively correlates with narrow victories? >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On 10/28/20 4:52 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: >>>>>> > I predict that Biden will win by a large margin and that the >>>>>> outcome will be clear on election night notwithstanding any outstanding >>>>>> uncounted votes. Young people are voting in unprecedented numbers and >>>>>> are >>>>>> reportedly voting against Trump. Similarly the elderly, who favored >>>>>> Trump >>>>>> over Clinton by 10+ percentage points in 2016 are favoring Biden over >>>>>> Trump >>>>>> by a similar margin, according to polls. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > The good thing about predictions is that they can be evaluated >>>>>> perfectly after the events have happened. >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Frank >>>>>> > >>>>>> > --- >>>>>> > Frank C. Wimberly >>>>>> > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >>>>>> >>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g>> >>>>>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>>>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/140+Calle+Ojo+Feliz,+%0D%0A+Santa+Fe,+NM+87505?entry=gmail&source=g> >>>>>> > >>>>>> > 505 670-9918 >>>>>> > Santa Fe, NM >>>>>> > >>>>>> > On Wed, Oct 28, 2020, 5:20 PM uǝlƃ ↙↙↙ <geprope...@gmail.com >>>>>> <mailto:geprope...@gmail.com>> wrote: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > From: >>>>>> > >>>>>> > >>>>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7 < >>>>>> https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html#item-7> >>>>>> > "6. High turnout makes razor-thin victories, like the ones >>>>>> Trump notched in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, much less >>>>>> likely." >>>>>> > >>>>>> > Is that true? I've always heard that tight races lead to higher >>>>>> turnout, which would imply that high turnout would correlate WITH thin >>>>>> victories, not against them. >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ >>>>>> >>>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC> >>>>>> http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> >
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