Not Pieter, but ... Some small percentage of _*Type II *_diabetes is not preventable/controllable with diet and exercise.
Similarly, of the 42% of the US population that is obese (9.2% morbidly obese), some small subset is not preventable/controllable with diet exercise. (My guess is less that 20-25%). I am pretty sure Pieter was not speaking in absolutes. davew On Sun, Aug 8, 2021, at 8:46 AM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote: > Pieter, > > I am interested in your assertion that metabolic disorders like diabetes and > obesity are preventable. > > N > > Nick Thompson > thompnicks...@gmail.com > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp > *Sent:* Sunday, August 8, 2021 5:16 AM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] off-label technologies, exaptatiion and exponential > technological growth. > > > The CDC reports that among 4,899,447 hospitalized adults in PHD-SR, 540,667 > (11.0%) were patients with COVID-19, of whom 94.9% had at least 1 underlying > medical condition. https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2021/21_0123.htm. > > My reading of this is that it is mainly preventable conditions and my simple > conclusion is that if you live healthy you are well protected against covid. > > My wife and I got a wake-up call with loved ones that died of covid. They > were all obese. Our focus is now to live healthy. It not only gives > additional protection against covid, but against many other causes of illness > and poor quality of life too. > > > On Sun, 8 Aug 2021 at 10:26, David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu> wrote: >> Hi Frank, >> >> Only because Marcus responded…. >> >> This article >> https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/ >> Isn’t a good start. >> >> I didn’t read the whole thing, so I will confine my remarks to the title and >> second paragraph, relative to the reported data. >> >> 74% of people in the P-town outbreak had been vaccinated. What does that >> tell us? Very nearly nothing. This is the like the textbook question given >> to any undergrad in statistics. (And remember: “She’s an actuary!” — be >> ready to take her word for things.) >> >> There were, if I remember the number, 60k visitors to P-town. How many of >> them were vaccinated? Don’t have numbers on that. Suppose 99.67% of them >> were, for the sake of making a point. 800 cases (rounded out). 600 among >> the vaccinated. Suppose everyone in P-town was exposed (also not reported, >> I have no idea how many were). At that rate, the number of infections among >> the vaccinated would be 1%. Sounds well within the range of a vaccine that >> tests as 94% effective against infection. >> >> Suppose that only the state average of 64% were vaccinated and everyone was >> exposed. Then the fraction infected becomes 1.5%. Since P-town is a >> destination for the educated and rich, and known as a gay-friendly place so >> probably lefter than Mass as a whole, I would be very surprised if the vax >> fraction of the visitors were not above the state average. Not least >> because they were going to a party. >> >> How many were unvaccinated among the 60k? Again, not reported, presumably >> not something one is even allowed to ask about, and so probably impossible >> to know with precision and not easy to estimate. But again to make a point, >> suppose the number of unvaccinated was 200 ppl. Infections among the >> unvaxsed: 200. Wow! That would be 100% infectivity among the unvaccinated. >> >> >> Suppose the fraction actually vaxxed was 50/50 and everybody was exposed. >> Well, then, the vaccines were terrible; increased your chance of being >> infected by 50%. But of course that would require that the unvaxsed were >> also only catching delta at <2%, which is improbable. So presumably, if we >> knew the other numbers, we could guess at about what fraction of people >> actually had exposure. >> >> But then to use that, we need the correlation between degree of exposure and >> vaccination status, and who the hell knows even what the sign of that number >> would be? >> >> MY POINT (sorry to be so ugly all the time): we can find any interpretation >> you like, from completely anodyne to totally absurd, from within feasible >> ranges of other variables on which we have little or no information. >> >> How much drama does any of this warrant? >> >> Well, we were told that, what, 5 people landed in the hospital? Out of 60k >> visitors plus locals. Of whom 3 had preexisting problem conditions. No >> reports on whether the ones with problem conditions were vaxxed. Even in >> that tiny sample, we know nothing about correlation information that would >> change the direction of its implications qualitatively, from moving 1 or 2 >> people between categories. >> >> One final thing: those positive cases are outcomes of tests. I don’t recall >> seeing anything on how many were symptomatic. Could be all of them, but in >> many of these cohorts that use any contact tracing, it is fewer. That’s PCR >> in the nose or throat. >> >> So really? Is the title “the vaccines don’t work as believed on the delta >> variant” warranted? >> >> Speaking in slightly fuller sentences, what did we “expect” from experience >> with vaccines up to now? The vaccines enable the learning phase of immunity >> to be done and stored, so that one may or may not have antibodies in any >> given quantity (variable across people and probably usually degrades with >> time; six month numbers being given a a guess at a time frame, with >> considerable imprecision), but one does have whatever genetic memory there >> is to activate antibody-producing cells quickly. That has been reported for >> about 1/2 year in dribs and drabs, and the variance in the results gives us >> an idea of roughly how much uncertainty we should have. >> >> So virus establishes a beachhead in the nose and throat, and rather than >> taking a week and a half to figure out an immune response, during which time >> it makes you much sicker, you knock it out (for most of those who do get >> sick) in a few days. All this seems to me well within the range of things >> that have been publicly reported. >> >> Zaynap Tufecki had a nice piece in the NYT a few days ago, something like >> CDC should stop confusing the public. It sounds like a dramatic title, but >> the content is good and sensible, and I think she mentioned part of this as >> well. Let me look: >> https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/04/opinion/cdc-covid-guidelines.html >> >> The Crooked guys also did a nice interview with Ashish Jha from Brown, here: >> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SddFBebSk-c >> where, in addition to being asked interesting questions and given time to >> give coherent answers, he was able to relax a bit and talk as if from >> thought instead of from script. >> >> So it strikes me that, so far, we are getting small updates to how viral >> attacks and immunity are relating, and a little info on distributions. None >> of it seems very surprising, and the early estimates are still closer than >> we have any right to hope for, given a new disease in the period of rapid >> change. The fact that you can get high PCR titers in the nose of a >> vaccinated person is useful to know, perhaps not predicted per se, but not >> bizarre either. >> >> — >> >> I have thought, throughout the attention to these topics during the past >> year and a half, that we swim in viruses all the time. We catch a cold once >> every few years, and suppose that is because our exposure Is intermittent. >> But I’ll bet what is going on with the ambient virosphere looks much more >> like this business we are seeing with COVID than we would ever have guessed, >> with the important exception that we are all naive to COVID, and not to all >> the other stuff. I have wished there were time and manpower to use this >> unprecedented effort at measurement, to revamp our mental pictures and >> epidemiological models of how ambient viruses are moving around. It may be >> that a lot of this is already known, and I am just ignorant of it (that >> would be my first assumption), but I can’t imagine all this measurement >> doesn’t have _something_ of a general nature that we could learn from. >> >> Eric >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >>> On Aug 8, 2021, at 6:16 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>> Gail Tverberg: does anyone have an opinion about her? Based on her career >>> as an actuary she writes various blog posts and articles warning of >>> imminent disasters related to Covid, oil prices, etc. When I search for >>> commentaries about her I find almost nothing except items that she has >>> written. She is associated with "Our Finite World". >>> --- >>> Frank C. Wimberly >>> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, >>> Santa Fe, NM 87505 >>> >>> 505 670-9918 >>> Santa Fe, NM >>> >>> >>> On Sat, Aug 7, 2021, 1:28 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: >>>> No need for victims when there are (pandemic) volunteers. >>>> >>>> >>>>> On Aug 7, 2021, at 11:43 AM, Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com> wrote: >>>>> Marcus - >>>>> >>>>>> The pushback on everything from low wattage lighting to mask mandates >>>>>> leaves me thinking that there is really only one thing that motivates >>>>>> certain people: That they can do whatever the hell they want and, >>>>>> crucially, that other people cannot. A living wage infringes on that >>>>>> ranking and so must be terrible. What if there were physical space for >>>>>> everyone, food for everyone, and many optional ways to invest one’s >>>>>> time? What if one didn’t need a wage at all? What if you had to >>>>>> decide for yourself what was worth doing? Heck, what if one (some >>>>>> post-human) didn’t even need food and didn’t need to reproduce? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Sounds Utopian... erh... Dystopian... no... UTOPIAN! Uhm... I just hope >>>>> posthumans collectively find the rest of us boring enough to leave alone >>>>> and interesting enough to not need to extinct us. Homo Neanderthalenses >>>>> had a long run (~.4My?) before Homo Sapiens Sapiens found our way into >>>>> their territory and apparently ran over them with our aggressive >>>>> adaptivity (over a period of tens of thousands of years). I suspect >>>>> *some* trans/post humans will also have a somewhat more virulent (or at >>>>> least very short time-constant) adaptivity indistinguishable (to us) from >>>>> extermination-class aggression. >>>>> >>>>> I like the fairy tale Spike Jonze wove on this topic with HER >>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Her_(film)>, and in particular the virtual >>>>> Alan Watts <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Watts> conception. But I >>>>> highly doubt we might be so lucky. More likely some version of "the >>>>> Borg" or "Cylons" or "Replicators" or (passive aggressive) "Humanoids" >>>>> (minus the gratuitous anthropomorphism). To us, it will probably look >>>>> more like a "grey goo" scenario. Or perhaps more aptly hyperspectral >>>>> rainbow-goo. >>>>> >>>>> At the current rate of change/acceleration/jerk in technosocial change I >>>>> may even live to see the whites of the eyes of the hypersonic train >>>>> headlights I mistook for "light at the end of the tunnel". >>>>> >>>>> I'm going to go now to get my telescoping (drywall stilts) runner's legs >>>>> fit in place of the organic ones I grew (and then abused/neglected) over >>>>> the past 65 years. I'm holding out for AR corneal transplants for a >>>>> few more months, I think it will be worth the long wait for the upgraded >>>>> features and the new neural lace interface specs. >>>>> >>>>> - Sieve >>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,ToX9SHL_B1Ax8AfT6DsuRDrH1GeA3821EoHrJDVxgsrKpUyNiuUv0WVOJqCZ-U4wflyTf-g7UdCZb7l7yM5hBHx0lTJD1fG_Wq6B_k3vFpy8Jw,,&typo=1> >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,0BDfdnUIr69GQTWqjHdPTRPgDXNJ9daZqONk6gU5WLyx3rGtZ9_NA7Yu91odYRJnCM66Fh_AyRPOVW1lPgRpgCXBd7GBqyVLWnouCBFM&typo=1> >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,hZAtZ-SOsCEsB5OOSrCfWKhtzkc1rItlal1EH668JK84oGXr8J1p0tquCt-uYhvQb3C4Ne57gwScJrtLp_uOO-bwpXcx4JSE6yL6YLz5&typo=1> >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,M1rKUWWDn5gTdqF_hDnTW3p9JfyzZwmmMeg5qbU9GmjJbEpkmMlgAG80ywQlLKRL-DBPbau9Tf32yRJxvLSud_2-bo_TYEI8KgnOd3bFyR0I&typo=1> >>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,-fb-DH50jElEQU7kuALRVNTE58o-LZswpSoVG6U3AY3G8sOGQAz1vUmNbVMUx0Ss4cF5N-Jm366iOkDupQTuJBMeLNvED3dsGkSRB14F6EJM3VNpMBno1gyT56U,&typo=1> >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,_tpgwFNH5aZH9tqHKPmxgJJ0cL3oKCTAStfkBcbTLJxnVgUIz-JZ_EmDAdP1AOHjYvnmrWumoSqWNwzTfb_4vqO3WWviRr2kEOJMP8Ypi7R-wbi0PiH80kmz&typo=1> >>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> >>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,6nqVZWGHP0j-TMe4XMD9O2nHcxuEfXM-PuQP9ch6llP2SpjT6tGWx6gKTeCZL1nVUY0O8vPztWZXtHjY9ESUjqtCSsWPosMim81TSwSR32sk7fe4&typo=1 >>> FRIAM-COMIC >>> https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,ros1hCGo0SjFEDu2q1m-xqJtruPoFAzubnUl_1K-8CbgHRIxF7zqWElWmThueDiZrmkIgtemPDzn5ulAIMEsfJsAM7MGkTFFfVilIRPjkYEFUMc,&typo=1 >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> >> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >
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