Gosh, Keith. I know quite a few Saudi Arabians, and quite a bit about Saudi Arabia, and have none of the senses that you describe. None. Perhaps you are falling prey to the increasingly engineered anti-Saudi rant that the media is carrying? My impression of Saudis is that of friendliness to the US and to Americans, self-interest but restraint on oil sales, zero promotion of terrorism, and honest struggles with issues of modernity and traditional values. What different points of view we have! But I think mine is the one generally held by people who really know the country and its people, not the least of which includes US Ambassadors, scholars, expats who have worked in the country, and general experts on the Middle East.
I am as always intrigued with your scenarios, skeptical over the amount of centralized planning and coordination that they posit. But mostly I hope that you remember that they are _only_ scenarios, and that reality may be quite different. Re. the Brits who have been arrested for setting up a distribution network for booze they distilled in their bathtubs (not just a small case of smuggling in a whiskey bottle or two!) my guess is that if they had apologized and showed public contrition, they would be on an airplane out of there pretty quickly. I don't know much about the case, and don't know who they were working for, but I would guess that their companies had given them briefings on what was expected of them and their behavior in Saudi Arabia (SOP for expats) so they can't claim innocent ignorance. Too many Europeans and Americans travel to other cultures with the attitude they can do anything they damn well please, and then howl with outrage when they are arrested for (usually egregiously) breaking the laws. Best regards, Lawry > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Keith Hudson > Sent: Monday, August 12, 2002 8:04 AM > To: William B Ward > Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: Re: Next 11 September > > > Bill, > > At 09:08 12/08/02 -0400, you wrote: > >Keith, > > > >While the scenarios you mention may all occur, I feel that you are > >imputing too much logic to the Bush contingent. My guess is that they are > >simply trying to put the squeeze on Sa'ud and trying to help out a few > >Congress people for the November elections. I bet you will see a change > >in the polemics once the elections are over. > > I hardly think so. The Saudis have been a thorn in the flesh of the > Americans for too many years. For example, as swing producer in OPEC, SA > has been able to manipulate oil prices for the last 20 years. Also, what > about the many American deaths in recent years organised by > terrorists paid > for and organised out of SA? The authorities made no attempt to arrest the > network even though they must know exactly who they are. (In the case of > the most recent bombing, the Saudis have arrested a few Englishmen as > terrorists even though all that they appear to have done is to organise a > little whiskey smuggling!) The most the Saudis have done was to banish > Osama bin Laden, but they didn't stop huge quantities of funds being > funnelled to him from SA. > > In diplomatic terms, America has been treated with something akin to open > contempt by the Saudis in the last 20 years but haven't responded in a > heavy-handed way because of the importance of oil supplies to the US and > Europe. But 11 September finally pushed America too far. (The ploy of > somehow making Saddam Hussein the scapegoat must have been the personal > contribution of Bush senior!) > > As for the logic of the Bush contingent I'll grant you that the President > himself is not over-endowed in the greymatter department, but the people > behind him (such as Wolfowitz) are certainly very bright kiddies indeed. > I'm not normally a conspiracy-theory supporter but my guess is that the > Carlyle group, Bush senior, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Perle and > specialist advisors > in the State department (and a few progressive Saudi Arabians) have been > thinking about the Islamic fundamentalist problem intensely for two or > three years now given the state of King Fahd's health. 11 September > catalysed their ideas. > > You may be right but I'd lay odds of 10:1 on that my scenario is going to > be nearer the mark. The polemics can't simply change on Bush's say-so > because the underlying problems will still be there. By the time the > November elections come along, I think Gulf War II will have already > started and getting into its stride. (And by this I mean a much wider > affair than merely anti-Iraq. ) . > > Keith > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > ---------- > -------------- > > Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England > Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > ________________________________________________________________________ >
