Re: [Futurework] The epidemic of Aids

[Harry Pollard]

At 06:12 PM 1/13/2003 -0500, Wiliam B Ward wrote:

Harry,

A few comments in your text below in CAPS [pardon the shouting]

Bill Ward

HARRY : I like the easy differentiation. Karen's blue lines are a similarly good idea. They make a conversation easier to understand.

Harry Pollard <<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
> Keith,
>
> Absolutely. As I said, it's a behavioral disease in the US.

IT IS A BEHAVIORAL DISEASE EXCEPT WHEN TRANSMITTED FROM MOTHER TO CHILD.
>
> Incidentally, while looking up my archives and others to make my
> points in the long screed on AIDS, I found the contact number for catching
> AIDS is not 500, but 1,000. This compares with two contacts for syphilis and
> gonorrhea. Don't know about herpes and suchlike.

I WOULD BE INTERESTED IN YOUR SOURCES. FEMALES ARE 15 TO 20 TIMES AS LIKELY TO BE INFECTED BY A CONTACT AS MALES DUE TO ANALTOMY.

HARRY : The CDC in Atlanta first published this figure back in 1989. They have confirmed this with additional studies since then. With HIV perhaps, but apparently not with AIDS.

> I originally thought that the amyl nitrites that young homosexuals
> take to maintain their abilities through the night were enough to make them
> unwell and less able to fight off invasive disease.

AS YOU MENTIONED BELOW, MALNUTRITION, TB, MALARIA, WORMS, AND THE LIKE LOWER IMMUNITY.
>
> Duesberg suggests all "recreational" drugs press hard on the immune
> system. I am beginning to feel he is on the right track.

THIS MAY EXPLAIN A BUNCH OF THE PROBLEM NI THE US BUT NOT IN AFRICA.
>
> I've also mentioned that some diseases attack the immune system,
> though I haven't a listing for them.
>
> You also believe in the connection between HIV and AIDS. In the US,
> there are thousands of patients with AIDS but not HIV, and a million with
> HIV who don't have AIDS.

HIV ALSO ENHANCES THE CONVERSION RATE FOR TB
>
> Yet, the definition has become circular. If you have HIV and one of
> the now 30 diseases - you have AIDS.

AIDS IS MERELY A DIFFERENT CUT POINT ON THE CONTINUUM OF DIMINISHED 'T' CELLS ALONG WITH AN OPPORTUNISTIC INFECTION SUCH AS KAPOSI'S SARCOMA OR PNEUMOCISTITIS.

HARRY : One thing that bothers me is that Kaposi is the disease of homosexual AIDS sufferers and I think not many others. Yet, I've also read that its a scourge in East Africa. I wonder why?

> I suppose we must wait for the findings of researchers who are
> beginning to have second doubts about this too easily accepted relationship.
> Unfortunately, people like Duesberg are kept out of the circle - simply
> because he doesn't follow the party line.

I MET A WOMAN WHO BELIEVED THAT CERVICAL CANCER WAS UNRELATED TO DISPLASIA. THERE ARE HOLDOUTS IN HIV/AIDS AS WELL.
>
> As honest (and acceptable) researchers begin to publish findings
> separating HIV from AIDS things may change. If Montagnier - who first
> discovered HIV/AIDS - is changing his mind on this, perhaps we will find common
> sense returning to the subject. Maybe Duesberg will even get a grant again!

NO PROBLEM. MORE RESEARCH IS NEEDED, OBVIOUSLY.
>
> In Africa, the problem doesn't need to be drugs. It's just plain
> lack of nutrition. This is what UNAIDS Program Development Advisor Elesani
> Njobvu said:
>
> "Families lacking sufficient nutritious food are more vulnerable,
> as poor nutrition is closely linked with poor health. This in turn makes a
> person more vulnerable to HIV infection and can shorten the incubation
> period of HIV, meaning that symptoms appear sooner. The situation is [the]
> worst for the poor who have the least access to medical care." Njobvu added
> that people struggling with daily survival are less likely to take
> preventative measures and are "inclined to resort to any means to get food".
>
> Which remark, I suppose is directed to prostitution.

PROSTITUTION IS A PROBLEM IN AFRICA, AS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, THE GREAT MIGRATION OF MALES TO SOUTH AFRICA TO WORK IN THE GOLD AND DIAMOND MINES SO THAT THEY COULD FEED THEIR CHILDREN ACK HOME AND THE SACRIFICING OF HER FUTURE BY A YOUNG THAI WOMAN FROM RURAL THAILAND IN THE BROTHELS OF BANGKOK SO THAT HER FAMILY WILL LIVE ARE CAUSES.
>
> Those poor bloody people.

HARRY : One can only shake one's head in despair and repeat - those poor bloody people.

> I pointed out that South Africans don't test for HIV. It's a privacy
> issue. But in the rest of Africa, testing is diminishing even in the best
> areas. What testing there may be is apparently not very good and cannot be
> trusted.

MBEKI HAS BEEN RESISTANT TO A NATIONWIDE CAMPAIGN BUT IS COMING AROUND. HIS FEELING WAS THAT DIARRHEAL INFECTIONS KILLED MORE CHILDREN THAN HIV AND HE WAS RIGHT BUT THOSE NUMBERS ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY. TEN YEARS AGO, THERE WERE 10% INFECTION RATES AMONG PRENATAL PATIENTS IN PLACES LIKE RWANDA AND ZAMBIA. THE NUMBERS HAVE DOUBLED AND DOUBLED AGAIN IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. THE REAL EXPLOSION WILL BE IN ASIA WHERE MORE PEOPLE WILL BE INFECTED IN 20 YEARS THAN LIVE IN AFRICA WITHOUT SOME MAGIC INTERVENTION.

HARRY : Remember the circular definition of AIDS. If you have a disease, you have a disease. If you also have HIV, then it's AIDS. Also, testing for HIV is becoming less likely and what there is seems often suspect.

With regard to pregnant women, the "cocktail" apparently doesn't work in 53% of the cases and there are side effects including abortion and child defects. Haven't a clue what happens in Africa. Also, do the babies have HIV or AIDS? As you know I don't think they are synonymous. If they have AIDS - it's goodbye. If they have HIV, I would like them left alone. However, there must be a strong imperative to fed them the anti-AIDS drugs - which may kill them.

As I've suggested, broccoli (and proteins!) might save them.

> In the poorest - and hardest hit areas - apparently there is no HIV
> testing. HIV is assumed. People who once died from TB now die from
> AIDS. I fear that the disease is the same - only the acronym has changed. It
> would be interesting to find out if anyone now dies from the common
> diseases they used to die from. (I have a feeling that this is something I will
> have to look into.)

HIV/AIDS DOES ACCELERATE DEATHS FROM COMMON DISEASES. IN FACT, PEOPLE ARE DYING FROM DISEASES THAT NEVER USED TO KILL THEM.
>
> Another figure I would find interesting is the number of white South Africans (less homosexuals and hemophiliacs) who die from AIDS.
> AIDS problems in South Africa are in the rural areas and the townships.
> How many well-fed South Africans are dying? That would be an interesting
> statistic. But a quick look around hasn't come up with much.

IN HAITI, THE WEALTHY WERE HIT FIRST DUE TO THEIR HIGH MOBILITY AND ACCESS TO EXPENSIVE ILLEGAL DRUGS.

HARRY : In the US, there appears to be a strong correlation between recreational drugs and AIDS. I think it's 95% or suchlike. I would think that it's not the drugs as such, but their debilitating effect on the immune system. I suppose lack of adequate nutrition does the same thing.

> Meantime, rather than AIDS drugs, it might be more helpful to send
> broccoli to Africa.Incidentally, Most African countries are coping.
> Four are basket cases - including Joe's Kenya. Kenya has some of the best

BROCCOLI MIGHT NOT BE A BAD IDEA AS LONG AS IT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY PROTEIN SOURCES.
>
> agricultural land in Africa in the Central Highlands. Plenty of
> water is available for irrigation of the arid areas.

KENYA WAS VERY PROSPEROUS A FEW DECADES AGO UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF ONE OF THE HIGHEST BIRTH RATES OF THE WORLD LED TO SUBDIVIDING OF AGRICULTURAL LAND TO A POINT WHERE POEPLE COULD NOT SUPPORT THEMSELVES. SADISTS COULD SEE AIDS AS A WAY TO READJUST THE POPULATION BALANCE.

HARRY : I've talked about Kenya back in the 50's. The Central Highlands, some of the best agricultural land in Africa, was known as the "White Highlands" because it was owned by whites. At that time, some 86% of the land was unused. I'm sure the arid areas could be irrigated easily enough. Kenya has plenty of water. Unfortunately these are governmental activities and I doubt the politicians have much time after they have spent it feathering their nests. However, the new President might also be a new broom. I would like Joe to give us his opinion of the change.

> Yet there is widespread starvation - even to able bodied men being
> unable to bring in the food - though there is apparently plenty of corn.

THESE ARE THE SAME MEN AND WOMEN [WHO DO MORE THAN 50% OF THE AGRICULTURAL WORK] WHO ARE PLANTING IT

It just doesn't get to those who need it.
>
> It may be that governmental corruption and incompetence is a greater
> problem in parts of Africa than AIDS.


Kenya once had a magnificent future that has been sunk by the malfeasance and
misfeasance of those office.

THIS THEY LEARNED FROM THEIR WHITE GOVERNORS AND OVERLORDS.

HARRY : I doubt it. I don't think colonial administrations were particularly corrupt. They were just superior and arrogant (even to the cockney types they tried to keep out). If there was one good thing British colonialism left behind, it was probably a somewhat competent bureaucracy. (We'll argue about that another time.)

QUADRUPLING OF POPULATIONS MIGHT HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH IT.

HARRY: I doubt that too. However, its corollary - poor land use combined with concentrated ownership - is always a factor. It is rare in history for the peasants to be drawn to the cities, they are usually driven there. (Hence - Goldsmith's "Deserted Village" and overcrowded, poverty stricken Nairobi.)

I compared Kenya with Texas - Areas (sq. miles) were K - 225,000 : T - 267,000. Populations K - 30 million : T - 20 million. Doesn't seem an extraordinary difference between them. (Keith - I think the UK would fit 8 times into Texas.

> Pete complained because I was critical of Clinton's: "a quarter of
> southern Africa's population is likely to die of AIDS ..."

CLINTON IS A CROOK AND A LOT OF OTHER THINGS BUT IS RIGH ON IN THIS ONE.
>
> Pete thought this was a useful attempt to engage our compassion.
> Maybe, but it was an outright lie. The sub-Saharan population of Africa rose:
>
> 1950 - 227 million
>
> 1970 - 361 million
>
> 1990 - 626 million
>
> 2000 - 803 million

AFRICA IS THE ONLY CONTINENT IN THE WORLD THAT HAS SEEN AN ACTUAL DECLINE IN POPULATION I NTHE LASK DECADE. WHAT ARE YOUR SOURCES?

HARRY : Actually, estimates of population by 2050 are 1.75 billion! I can't find the source of my historical figures above. When I do, I'll give it to you. I did find a depressing report that I sent in a separate post to you. I also ran into the following excerpt from Population Action International :

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.populationaction.org/news/press/news_050398.htm:

AFRICA AT THE TURNING POINT:
DEVELOPMENT HINGES ON SUCCESS IN POPULATION, HEALTH

Study highlights rising demand for family planning as key to progress

Washington, DC — With Kenya, South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe leading the way, the countries of sub-Saharan Africa are at a critical turning point in their efforts to address the dual challenge of rapid population growth and poor reproductive health, according to a new study from Population Action International (PAI). The region's prospects for economic development largely depend on the success—or failure—of governments in accelerating efforts to expand family planning services and to combat deaths in pregnancy and childbirth and from AIDS.

Sub-Saharan Africa's population has doubled in just 25 years to 620 million—and is projected to double again in less than three decades, even after taking into account declining birthrates and rising deaths from AIDS. For more than 20 years, population growth of almost 3 percent a year has outpaced economic gains as well as increases in food production, leaving Africans, on average, 22 percent poorer than in 1975.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

However, I ran into another which said pop growth had dropped to a 1.5. This seems too low, just as the 3% seems a bit too high. Unfortunately, Bill, we can't escape political manipulation of statistics. The UN figure for 1990 was apparently 616 million - I suppose close enough. I would like confirmation of the 2000 figure of 803 million.

> Is compassion the fruit of lying? Maybe - politicians love to have
> something to take them off the hook. What better than a terrifying
> disease to blame for their ineptness and venality? "It isn't our fault that
> things are such a mess. It's this horrible disease."

HARRY, THE ABOVE IS BENEATH YOU. I ATTRIBUTE IT O YOUR FEELING OF HELPLESSNESS IN DOIG SOMETHING ABOUT THIS AND REALIZATION THAT WE WILL BE SPENDING A HUNDRED TIMES WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM BY BOMBING IRAQ AND IMPLEMENTING 'W's TAX PLAN.

HARRY : Yet other political activities, are they not? I apparently have a more cynical view of politicians than you. Wasn't always the case and indeed some of them break ranks to be pretty good. I don't really feel helpless. But you have reminded me of Joe in Kenya. He must feel helpless and frustrated. I have nothing but sympathy for him.

What can he do?

To repeat what I said - all I suggest is some rethinking if we are to save the next generation - or the one after that..

Harry


******************************
Harry Pollard
Henry George School of LA
Box 655
Tujunga CA 91042
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Tel: (818) 352-4141
Fax: (818) 353-2242
*******************************

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