Or personal morality. REH
----- Original Message ----- From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Friday, October 03, 2003 10:32 AM Subject: RE: [Futurework] Too much demand for oil > Would just add one thing. At a quarter of a tank and with no gas stations > in sight you either look at other cars as a source of gas or as a source of > a possible ride---depending on the state of social cohesion. > > arthur > > -----Original Message----- > From: Thomas Lunde [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Thursday, October 2, 2003 2:54 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Too much demand for oil > > > Hi Keith: > > I followed oil and gas for a couple of years which does not make me an > expert - still one small metaphor made brilliant sense to me. > > When your car is full of gas, there is no need to be concerned about where > you drive. When the gas gauge shows half a tank, there is a nudge from > memory to be aware and start looking for a fill-up. If the gauge gets down > to one quarter, the prudent driver makes a serious effort to get gas - never > know when you are going to be stuck in a traffic jam. From the one quarter > position to empty is a state of increasing anxiety and the driver may find > himself interrupting his trip and increasing his expenses to find a filling > station. > > Now in the world of reserves, my best info is we passed the halfway mark > around the year 2000. Even though there may still be plenty of oil, there > is a physics exchange in how much energy can you expend to get energy. Much > of this energy will take more energy to get the oil leading to a net loss - > obviously uneconomical. The current political situation of GWB, in my > opinion is the realization that we have passed the halfway mark and he is > looking for a gas station to top up his tank - i.e. Iraq. However it is > costing him more energy than anticipated which means his tank is moving down > to the one quarter mark - crisis. > > Once the general populace becomes aware that we are below the one half tank > mark, there will start to be panic which will make the owning and control of > oil and gas the maximum currency for power. GWB is determined not to let > that power opportunity go to anyone else - hence his frantic efforts to tame > Iraq and Afganistan. His problem is he is spending his reserves in the > hopes of refilling the tank. It is a curve with a time element and if it > costs to much to secure the new energy, he will be bankrupt before he > achieves his goals. > > As to the rest of us - go suck a lemon. The trickle down theory will become > the dominant model and if you are not where the trickle is - freeze, starve, > and die. > > Some thoughts. > > Respectfully, > > Thomas Lunde > > ---------- > >From: Keith Hudson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Subject: [Futurework] Too much demand for oil > >Date: Thu, Oct 2, 2003, 11:40 AM > > > > > When oil and gas production peaks -- in about 10 years' time and onwards, > > according to a recent study -- then there won't be a sudden collapse in > > supply. It will be a long, slow decline lasting, maybe, another century or > > more. But that's not really the issue, as is pointed out below. It is that > > the demand will still be growing steeply and exceeding any amount that the > > world's resources can supply. Hopefully, American and European trade will > > integrate even more closely with China than now, or else I can envisage > > America and China coming to blows in ten years or so. > > > > Keith Hudson > > > > <<<< > > OIL AND GAS RUNNING OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED, SAYS STUDY > > > > Charles Arthur > > > > World oil and gas supplies are heading for a "production crunch" sometime > > between -- 2010 and 2020 when they cannot meet supply, because global > > reserves are 80 per cent smaller than had been thought, new forecasts > suggest. > > > > Research presented this week at the University of Uppsala in Sweden claims > > that oil supplies will peak soon after 2010, and gas supplies not long > > afterwards, making the price of petrol and other fuels rocket, with > > potentially disastrous economic consequences unless people have moved to > > alternatives to fossil fuels. > > > > While forecasters have always known that such a date lies ahead, they have > > previously put it around 2050, and estimated that there would be time to > > shift energy use over to renewables and other non-fossil sources. > > > > But Kjell Aleklett, one of a team of geologists that prepared the report, > > said earlier estimates that the world's entire reserve amounts to 18,000 > > billion barrels of oil and gas -- of which about 1,000 billion has been > > used up so far -- were "completely unrealistic". He, Anders Sivertsson and > > Colin Campbell told New Scientist magazine that less than 3,500 billion > > barrels of oil and gas remained in total. > > > > Dr James McKenzie, senior assistant on the climate change programme at the > > World Resources Institute in Washington, said: "We won't run out of oil -- > > but what will happen is that production will decline, and that's when all > > hell will break loose." > > > > Present annual oil consumption is about 25 billion barrels, and shows no > > signs of slowing. That would suggest a "production crunch" -- where > > consumption grows to meet the maximum output -- within the next couple of > > decades. > > > > Dr McKenzie said that on this topic the argument split between economists > > and geologists. "The economists think it will just force the price of oil > > up, which will mean it will become economic to extract it from all sorts > of > > unusual places, such as tarry sands or deposits which are 90 per cent rock > > and 10 per cent oil. But the geologists say "You tell us where the > deposits > > are and we'll find them. We've looked and we can't." > > > > One side-effect of having lower oil reserves might be that the worst > > predictions of climate change would be forestalled -- because there would > > be less fuel to bum, and therefore less carbon dioxide, the greenhouse > gas, > > produced. > > > > The Uppsala team's estimates are lower than any considered by the > > International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose minimum estiimate for > > the total reserves was 5,000 billion barrels. > > > > But Nebojsa Nakicenovic, an energy economist at the University of'Vienna > in > > Austria, who headed the IPCC team that produced the reserves forecasts, > > said the Swedish group were "conservative", and that his team had taken > > into account a wider range of estimates. Dr Nakicenovic added that, if oil > > and gas began to run out, "there's a huge amount of coal underground that > > could be exploited". > > > > Dr McKenzie said: "We have to accept the fact of oil and gas production > > peaking, and get concerned with substitutes. It's not when will we run > out, > > it's when will production be unable to meet demand. > > > > "And 97 or 98 per cent of transport depends on it. You can use coal to > make > > methanol to power your cars or buses. But the reality is that it's all > > about where the oil is." > > > > The Gulf countries -- Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, > and > > the United Arab Emirates -- produce about 25 per cent of the world's oil > at > > the moment, and hold 65 per cent of the world's oil reserves. > > > > "That's why we went to war in Iraq," said Dr McKenzie. "Gas might have > > comparable reserves to oil, but it's not in the right place and we don't > > really have the infrastructure to transport it." > > >>>> > > Independent 2 October 2003 > > > > > > Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>, > > <www.handlo.com>, <www.property-portraits.co.uk> > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Futurework mailing list > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
