It would have been interesting to have been a fly on the
wall in Bush's office last week when news came through that the northern
oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey was blown up for the fifth time. After
all, the revenue from it was supposed to pay for Iraq's reconstruction
and compensate the Americans for their humanitarian gesture in destroying
Saddam (?).
But, sadly for Bush's plans, all this was not to be. Saddam's nasty
Baathist types and other supporters have been in destructive mode, and
now the Americans (via their control of Soma, the Iraqi oil authority)
are having to consider pumping the oil southwards and out through the
Gulf.
But you can be sure that they are going to have even worse problems in
the south before very long. Even though this is further away from
Saddam's home terrority around Tikrit, the south is overwhelmingly Shia
territory. So far, the Shias have been quiet because they've been
relieved that the Baa'thists and the Sunni Moslems have been taken off
their backs. But they have their own extremist clerics, too, and they've
already organised their own militia which appears in full public view,
Kalashnikovs and all, on religious occasions -- much to the consternation
of the occupation troops. The Americans ordered them to disband and
give up their arms by 13 September but this deadline was quietly ignored.
The Americans dare not enforce their command -- they know that they're
only in Iraq on sufference.
What the Shias are waiting for -- so far, quite patiently -- is a
Constitution that is going to guarantee that the Baathist types and the
Sunni Muslims are going to be off their backs forever and that their 60%
majority of the population will be consolidated without any possibility
of reversion to former servitude. They will be demanding at least that
some of the most important portfolios are put under their belt -- such as
the Defence Ministry (just as happens, in fact, in the case of the
Wahhabi-controlled Saudi Arabia). If they don't get complete assurance
about their continued survivability -- then we can expect trouble. To
satisfy the United Nations, the Americans have promised the new
Constitution within six months.
And blowing up oil pipelines in the south will be the least of it. There
could quite easily be an insurrection that could be wider and much more
complex than even the Americans could control. Immediately to the east of
Iraq's Shia territory is, of course, Shia-controlled Iran, and
immediately to the south is Kuwait, the Shia majority in the Eastern
Province of Saudi Arabia and Shia-dominated Bahrein. All this region
could be in turmoil in the next few months unless the Americans can
produce a Constitution that will have miraculous features to suit the
Shias. There is little hope of this, I suggest.
So what should the evolutionary economist say to all this? He would say:
"Pay attention to what anthropologists and evolutionary
psychologists would say". Were they to be asked, they would say that
it is impossible to associate such different cultures as the Kurds, the
Sunni Muslims and the Shia Muslims all together in one nation-state
unless you oppress them mightily, and even then continue oppression for
at least two or three generations -- as indeed the English did in the
case of the Welsh and the Scots -- until some minimal common culture
arises. The evolutionary scientist would say: "Give each of them
their own territory, help them all with hospitals and schools and
whatever other specialisations they might need and then leave them
alone." Then and only then the Americans might have a chance
of being able to secure future oil supplies from what-is-now-Iraq after
voluntary negotiations with whichever culture happens to have the
oilfields in their territory.
Keith Hudson
<<<<
IRAQ MAY RE-ROUTE OIL VIA SOUTH TO BOOST EXPORTS
Javier Blas and Dan Robertsw
Iraq is preparing to increase oil exports by re-routing supplies around
sabotaged pipelines, according to European oil executives who met Iraqi
officials in London last week.
Private talks held at a London hotel left western buyers of Iraqi crude
more confident that exports would soon recover closer to prewar levels.
But the plan to divert oil from the Kirkuk field, in northern Iraq,
through a strategic pipeline to the south confirms fears that the damage
inflicted on the pipeline to Turkey is greater than previously admitted.
It also helps explain the surprise decision taken by Opec oil ministers
last month to cut production quotas, partly due to worries that rising
Iraqi production would force international prices down.
Iraq increased production to an average of 1.45m barrels per day (b/d)
last month -- up 500,000 b/d from August, but well below pre-war
production of 2.8m b/d.
"It's hard to estimate exact production because they are pumping
some excess oil back into the ground, but it would be quite significant
if they reversed the flow of this strategic pipeline," said Leo
Drollas, an analyst with the Centre for Global Energy Studies. "The
September figures are in line with the recovery pattern, but if they want
to go to 1.8m b/d from the south, they would have to bring oil down from
the north."
Sabotage has badly hit the supply of oil from the Kirkuk region, which
before the war accounted for for close to 50 per cent of Iraqi
exports.
Yesterday Reuters quoted oil ministry sources in Baghdad warning that
alternatives to the pipeline running to Turkey would not be operational
for 6-12 months.
Nevertheless, oil executives meeting officials in London said Iraq was
confident about increasing export volumes by using new routes. The
message was "back to business as usual", said one oil
executive.
"They [Iraqi officials] look more relaxed," said another oil
executive, who met Mohammed al-Jibouri, the head of Somo, the marketing
arm of the Iraqi oil ministry. "But privately they acknowledge
serious problems with Kirkuk oil."
A pipeline to the south could enable exports either through Saudi Arabia
or Iraq's Gulf ports. A more remote option, the Iraqi officials told
companies, would be to use the Iraq-Syria pipeline, a move that would be
unattractive to a US administration putting pressure on Damascus over its
support for militant Palestinian groups and alleged possession of weapons
of mass destruction.
The London meeting is believed to be the first round of discussions among
Iraqi oil officials and western oil companies outside the Middle East
since the war began in March.
Previously, Somo officials have met oil company representatives in Dubai,
Kuwait City and Baghdad.
Among the oil companies at the London meeting were ChevronTexaco, Total,
Repsol YPF, Cepsa and Vitol. Oil industry insiders say the event shows a
growing confidence in Baghdad about oil exports.
>>>>
Financial Times -- 6 October 2003
