On Nov 24, 2008, at 12:40 PM, Oliver Barry wrote: > Really, meteors notwithstanding, being the #2 team in the AP, if we > win out, all the other polls should fall in line too. They're > still the most prestigious poll even if they're not in the > formula. I'm sure everyone looks to them before they fill out > their ballots.
I agree with that, but we need to remember that the computers - despite being 1/3rd of the poll - are much more significant than that. The BCS has three components, each a percentage less than 1. In the polls, the percentage is the number of votes that a team gets divided by the number of possible points. So, if two teams are relatively close in points, the scoring difference between the two in the human polls will be very small. For example, Florida is #2 in Harris with 2644 points and Oklahoma #3 with 2598 points. That works out to BCS scores of .9277 and .9116 respectively. Even if we eke ahead in Harris, that leaves us with about a .02 margin from both polls combined. Right now, the computers have us .12 behind Oklahoma - a margin 6 times as large as the hypothetical lead we would have in both polls if we were to win out and scoot ahead of Oklahoma in the Harris. Put simply, I do not think that we can catch Oklahoma in the BCS even if both win out, due to the computer rankings. As an aside, Sagarin's BCS computer has us as #7. His real computer model, that is allowed to use margin of victory, has us as a close #2 behind Southern Cal. Everyone else is a distant third. Texas is even further ahead in the computers - .18. Our margin over Texas in the polls - combined - is .043. That puts Texas's lead in the BCS as three times our poll margin. If Texas is the Big 12 South representative and beats Missouri in its Championship game, I don't see UF overtaking Texas either. I hate to be a pessimist, but that how it looks from down here. -Zeb --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY! 1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions 2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996), Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
