I think that if either Alabama or UF wins out, the SEC champion goes to the title game under any scenario. The only thing that would keep the SEC champion out of the title game is if Alabama or Florida loses this weekend, then goes on to win the SEC championship. The loss to Auburn or FSU (heaven forbid) would be enough to do it.
The same scenario is true for the Big 12 if UT, TT or OU wins out. My understanding is that if they are all tied for the Big 12 division, that the one with the highest BCS rating goes to the Big 12 championship to face Missouri. Say that all three win this weekend and Texas gets to go to the game. If Texas beats Missouri, I think we will see Texas vs SEC champion in the BCS game. But what if Missouri beats Texas in the title game? Then maybe you have Oklahoma vs SEC champion. I suspect from the poll voters and the BCS standpoint, the ideal thing is to have Big 12 Champ vs SEC champ, all highly ranked with no more than one loss each. A very less than ideal thing would be to have two one-loss teams that did not win their conference championships, say Oklahoma vs USC. I don't think people will really want to see a conference rematch, a Texas vs Oklahoma, any more than they wanted to see an Ohio State-Michican rematch. So that's my 2 cents. Helen On Mon, Nov 24, 2008 at 1:22 PM, John Vega <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > On Nov 24, 2008, at 12:40 PM, Oliver Barry wrote: > > Really, meteors notwithstanding, being the #2 team in the AP, if we win > out, all the other polls should fall in line too. They're still the most > prestigious poll even if they're not in the formula. I'm sure everyone > looks to them before they fill out their ballots. > > > I agree with that, but we need to remember that the computers - despite > being 1/3rd of the poll - are much more significant than that. > > The BCS has three components, each a percentage less than 1. > > In the polls, the percentage is the number of votes that a team gets > divided by the number of possible points. So, if two teams are relatively > close in points, the scoring difference between the two in the human polls > will be very small. > > For example, Florida is #2 in Harris with 2644 points and Oklahoma #3 with > 2598 points. That works out to BCS scores of .9277 and .9116 respectively. > Even if we eke ahead in Harris, that leaves us with about a .02 margin from > both polls combined. > > Right now, the computers have us .12 behind Oklahoma - a margin 6 times as > large as the hypothetical lead we would have in both polls if we were to win > out and scoot ahead of Oklahoma in the Harris. > > Put simply, I do not think that we can catch Oklahoma in the BCS even if > both win out, due to the computer rankings. > > As an aside, Sagarin's BCS computer has us as #7. His real computer model, > that is allowed to use margin of victory, has us as a close #2 behind > Southern Cal. Everyone else is a distant third. > > Texas is even further ahead in the computers - .18. Our margin over Texas > in the polls - combined - is .043. That puts Texas's lead in the BCS as > three times our poll margin. > > If Texas is the Big 12 South representative and beats Missouri in its > Championship game, I don't see UF overtaking Texas either. > > I hate to be a pessimist, but that how it looks from down here. > > -Zeb > > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ GATORS: ONE VOICE ON SATURDAY - NO VOICE ON SUNDAY! 1996 National Football Champions | 2006 National Basketball Champions 2006 National Football Champions | 2007 National Basketball Champions Three Heisman Trophy winners: Steve Spurrier (1966), Danny Wuerffel (1996), Tim Tebow (2007) - Visit our website at www.gatornet.us -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
