I think Bill is absolutely right. I too agree with John N's concerns, but the next step should be - I believe - an adequately funded R&D effort to examine thoroughly those few SRM ideas that have some prospect of being affordable and quantitatively adequate, if deployed. It seems to me quite likely that two such techniques acting in concert could prove to be significantly more powerful and flexible than one acting alone..
All best, John (L). Quoting William Fulkerson <wf...@utk.edu>: > Dear John: > You know that I agree fully with your concerns about the loss of Arctic > summer sea ice, but I can¹t sign your letter. > I am tired of calls for a new Manhattan Project. The Arctic does not > require it. What is required is a fully funded RD&D effort (multilateral if > possible) to understand better the importance of the consequences from > loosing summer sea ice and of applying solar radiation management techniques > to arrest it. The RD&D should be carried out under the rules suggested at > the Asilomar Conference. > > We need to give John Holdren a well thought out proposal. As far as I know > no such proposal has been written by anyone except by Ehsan Khan of DOE > early in the decade, and the draft report was finally released last year . > > The America¹s Climate Choices report of the NAS has not yet been released. > I know, however, that geoengineering was covered in the science part of the > reports and in the mitigation part, I believe, but I haven¹t seen them yet. > I attended the geoengineering workshop that was part of this study. > With best regards, > Bill > > > > On 7/11/10 1:38 AM, "John Nissen" <j...@cloudworld.co.uk> wrote: > >> >> In view of the situation in the Arctic, I would be grateful for >> support for an >> open letter to John Holdren, along the following lines. Please let me know >> whether you agree with this text and whether you'd be happy for me >> to add your >> name at the bottom. >> >> Cheers, >> >> John >> >> --- >> >> To John P Holdren, the Director of the Office of Science and >> Technology Policy >> >> Dear Dr Holdren, >> >> The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror to reflect sunlight back >> into space >> and cool the Earth. The sea ice has been retreating far faster than the IPCC >> predicted only three years ago [1]. But, after the record retreat in >> September >> 2007, many scientists revised their predictions for the date of a seasonally >> ice free Arctic Ocean from beyond the end of century to beyond 2030. Only a >> few scientists predicted this event for the coming decade, and they were >> ridiculed. >> >> In 2008 and 2009 there was only a slight recovery in end-summer sea ice >> extent, and it appears that the minimum 2010 extent will be close to a new >> record [2]. However the evidence from PIOMAS is that there has been a very >> sharp decline in volume [3], which is very worrying. >> >> The Arctic warming is now accelerating, and we can expect permafrost to >> release large quantities of methane, from as early as 2011 onwards, >> which will >> lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse warming and abrupt climate >> change. All >> this could become apparent if the sea ice retreats further than ever before >> this summer. We could be approaching a point of no return unless emergency >> action is taken. >> >> We suggest that the current situation should be treated as a warning for us >> all. The world community must rethink its attitude to fighting >> global warming >> by cutting greenhouse gas emissions sharply. However, even if >> emissions could >> be cut to zero, the existing CO2 in the atmosphere would continue to >> warm the >> planet for many decades. Geoengineering now appears the only means to cool >> the Arctic quickly enough. A geoengineering project of the intensity of the >> Manhattan Project is urgently needed to guard against a global catastrophe. >> >> Yours sincerely, >> >> John Nissen >> >> [Other names to be added here.] >> >> [1] Stroeve et al, May 2007 >> http://www.smithpa.demon.co.uk/GRL%20Arctic%20Ice.pdf >> >> [2] >> http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png >> >> [3] http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure5.png > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > Groups "geoengineering" group. > To post to this group, send email to geoengineer...@googlegroups.com. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > > -- John Latham lat...@ucar.edu & john.latha...@manchester.ac.uk Tel. 303-444-2429 (H) & 303-497-8182 (W) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to geoengineer...@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
