I would just ask people to draw attention to sea ice volume models. In addition to look at i.e. Cryosphere Today how the terrestrial defrost progressed this year, and check out temperature legend maps for North Canada and Siberia. How many natural processes behave the same way on their very last legs as they do in the mid journey. Almost none.
Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2011 13:04:34 -0400 Subject: Re: [geo] September sea-ice gone by end of century? (or much sooner) From: rev...@gmail.com To: kcalde...@gmail.com CC: geoengineering@googlegroups.com http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/22/new-light-shed-on-north-pole-ice-trends/ The bottom line, expressed here before, is that no one should expect to find much broad meaning in short-term variability in Arctic sea ice — in one direction or the other. If there is a death spiral, expect a lot of loop the loopsalong the way. Those most passionately pushing for and against action on greenhouse gases have a tendency to jump to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site to chart each wiggle. On Mon, Jul 18, 2011 at 8:41 AM, Ken Caldeira <kcalde...@dge.stanford.edu> wrote: Folks, There has been a fair amount of discussion on this group that talks about imminent September sea ice loss in the Arctic. The attached paper indicates that around half of the normal September sea-ice should still be around in the 2020-2040 time frame. Boe, J., Hall, A., Qu, Z. Nature Geosci 2, 341-343 (2009). I am not saying that the situation in the Arctic is not dire, however, are the suggestions that September sea-ice in the Arctic is soon to be a thing of the past a bit overblown and without foundation? Best, Ken ___________________________________________________ Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.edu http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. -- Please excuse typos; as you may be aware, I had a stroke 1 July.ANDREW C. REVKINDot Earth blogger, The New York Timeshttp://www.nytimes.com/dotearthSenior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. StudiesCell: 914-441-5556 Fax/voicemail: 509-357-0965 Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
