At last some sanity.

 

From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com
[mailto:geoengineering@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Andrew Revkin
Sent: Monday, July 18, 2011 1:05 PM
To: kcalde...@gmail.com
Cc: geoengineering
Subject: Re: [geo] September sea-ice gone by end of century? (or much
sooner)

 

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/22/new-light-shed-on-north-pole-ic
e-trends/

 

The bottom line, expressed here before, is that no one should expect to find
much broad meaning in short-term variability in Arctic sea ice - in one
direction or the other. If there is a death spiral, expect
<http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/06/spread-of-thicker-arctic-ice-s
een-last-summer/> a lot of loop the loopsalong the way. Those most
passionately pushing for and against action on greenhouse gases have a
tendency to jump to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site to chart
each wiggle. 

 

 

On Mon, Jul 18, 2011 at 8:41 AM, Ken Caldeira <kcalde...@dge.stanford.edu>
wrote:

Folks,

There has been a fair amount of discussion on this group that talks about
imminent September sea ice loss in the Arctic.

The attached paper indicates that around half of the normal September
sea-ice should still be around in the 2020-2040 time frame.

Boe, J., Hall, A., Qu, Z. Nature Geosci 2, 341-343 (2009).

I am not saying that the situation in the Arctic is not dire, however, are
the suggestions that September sea-ice in the Arctic is soon to be a thing
of the past a bit overblown and without foundation?

Best,

Ken


___________________________________________________
Ken Caldeira

Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
+1 650 704 7212 <tel:%2B1%20650%20704%207212>
kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.edu 
http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab  @kencaldeira

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-- 
Please excuse typos; as you may be aware, I had a stroke 1 July
<http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/time-for-a-checkup/> .

ANDREW C. REVKIN
Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth
Senior Fellow, Pace Acad. for Applied Env. Studies
Cell: 914-441-5556 Fax/voicemail: 509-357-0965 
Twitter: @revkin Skype: Andrew.Revkin

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