The basic result here can be understood very simply with the following example:
1. Thermal expansion of the ocean is directly related to ocean heat uptake, which is closely related to the net downward flux of energy at the top-of-atmosphere. 2. If we choose some depth level in the oceans (say 100 m), if the top-of-atmosphere energy flux is equal to the energy flux through that depth level, there will be no net heating of the Earth above 100 m depth, but the ocean deeper than 100 m will continue to heat. 3. As a consequence, temperature near the surface can be stabilized for many centuries with a non-zero top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance as the oceans will continue to heat and therefore rise. _______________ Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution for Science Dept of Global Ecology 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA +1 650 704 7212 kcalde...@carnegiescience.edu http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira *Currently visiting * Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)<http://www.iass-potsdam.de/> *and *Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)<http://www.pik-potsdam.de/> *in Potsdam, Germany.* On Sat, Jul 7, 2012 at 11:54 PM, RAU greg <gh...@sbcglobal.net> wrote: > http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1529.html > > Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global > temperature > versus sea-level rise > * Gerald A. Meehl, * Aixue Hu, * Claudia Tebaldi, * Julie > M. > Arblaster, * > > Warren M. Washington, * Haiyan Teng, * Benjamin M. Sanderson, * > Toby > Ault, * > > Warren G. Strand * & James B. White IIINature Climate > Change (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1529Published online 01 July 2012 > Abstract > > There is a common perception that, if human societies make the significant > adjustments necessary to substantively cut emissions of greenhouse gases, > global > > temperature increases could be stabilized, and the most dangerous > consequences > of climate change could be avoided. Here we show results from global > coupled > climate model simulations with the new representative concentration pathway > mitigation scenarios to 2300 to illustrate that, with aggressive > mitigation in > two of the scenarios, globally averaged temperature increase indeed could > be > stabilized either below 2 °C or near 3 °C above pre-industrial values. > However, > even as temperatures stabilize, sea level would continue to rise. With > little > mitigation, future sea-level rise would be large and continue unabated for > centuries. Though sea-level rise cannot be stopped for at least the next > several > > hundred years, with aggressive mitigation it can be slowed down, and this > would > buy time for adaptation measures to be adopted. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
