If Oliver's book has anything to teach it is that environmental entrepreneurs, amateur and professional, have yet to discover any real limits to the credulity of their investors.
This one seems to fall somewhere between space mirrors and Ice 911, but the sky's the limit in the vaporware market : Having already found some inspiration in the tequila sunsets of Baja California, perhaps they should focus their considerable powers of speculation on Hawaiian punch: https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-next-big-thing-in-tequila-sunsets.html On Tuesday, January 3, 2023 at 5:37:40 AM UTC-5 oliver...@economist.com wrote: > As Russell points out, helium is far too valuable to be used for this. As > Daniele points out, hydrogen does chemistry with alacrtity -- and thus at > very least wets the stratosphere to a degree which would seem disturbing. > In suggesting methane i think Andrew has chosen...poorly. > > And Josh has his finger on something absolutely crucial. As someone with > an interest in developing-country solar geoengineering research via my > relationship with Degrees, I think doing this work in Mexico without > seeking to involve Mexican researchers or investigation of permitting is > completely indefensible. As far as I can see, Luke has not provided an > account for why the flights were launched from Mexico rather than the US, > and in the absence of such an account it is very hard not to see this as > developed world actors choosing a developing country venue for nefarious > reasons. > > best, o > > > > > > On Monday, 2 January 2023 at 19:15:40 UTC Andrew Lockley wrote: > >> I don't understand your first question. And no, Reviewer 2 doesn't do any >> background research / verification. It would be dumb to lie about it. >> >> Andrew >> >> On Mon, 2 Jan 2023, 19:14 Russell Seitz, <russel...@gmail.com> wrote: >> >>> Technically, there's no there there, and their podcast performance >>> makes one doubt the intellectual seriousness of their investors >>> >>> As a matter of due diligence , have you contacted the VC's whose >>> allegiance Make Sunsets claims ? >>> >>> On Monday, January 2, 2023 at 12:24:55 PM UTC-5 Andrew Lockley wrote: >>> >>>> Could you please clarify how you think I've been "punked"? I >>>> interviewed the founders for 2h, they weren't chatbots. >>>> https://open.spotify.com/episode/2Fr15fdX20qyyfVX8VCF3Q?si=5Hq3ikM2QS6MVilqYvPZig >>>> >>>> I don't think using AI to create content is irresponsible, provided >>>> it's checked for accuracy. >>>> >>>> Andrew >>>> >>>> On Mon, 2 Jan 2023, 17:09 Russell Seitz, <russel...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Has Andrew Lockley been punked along with James Temple? >>>>> >>>>> *Legal Planet '* s sober fisking of Make Sunsets failed to notice its >>>>> executives most interesting potential liability defense — the ChatGPT >>>>> AI did it ! >>>>> >>>>> Iseman & Song's offering website ran the following >>>>> >>>>> *Author's note: 99% of this blog post and title was written using the >>>>> help of ChatGPT <https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/> and the hero image was >>>>> generated using DreamStudio <https://beta.dreamstudio.ai/dream>. The >>>>> title >>>>> was generated based off the content of the blog post.* >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Monday, January 2, 2023 at 11:34:05 AM UTC-5 Chris Vivian wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Edward Parson has posted a commentary on Legal Planet about the Make >>>>>> Sunsets concept - see - A Dangerous Disruption - Legal Planet >>>>>> (legal-planet.org) >>>>>> <https://legal-planet.org/2023/01/02/a-dangerous-disruption/> >>>>>> >>>>>> Chris. >>>>>> >>>>>> On Sunday, 1 January 2023 at 02:34:52 UTC Russell Seitz wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> When I was at MIT, "War Surplus " stores abounded in $5 canned >>>>>>> hydrogen generators designed to fill radiosonde or life raft rescue >>>>>>> balloons. The gizmo opened with a can of sardines key to expose the >>>>>>> calcium hydride within to sea water, and filled the attached 1- meter >>>>>>> balloon in about 15 minutes. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Whereupon, it being sunset on the 4th of July on an easterly beach >>>>>>> with a westerly wind, we attached a slow magnesium ribbon fuse and let >>>>>>> it >>>>>>> go . it traveled some miles downwind and rose perhaps one before >>>>>>> exploding >>>>>>> with a pale flash, but no audible pop >>>>>>> >>>>>>> The current low cost balloon record seems to be held by the 22 >>>>>>> meter Le Ballon Air de Paris, filled with 6,000 m3 (210,000 cu ft) >>>>>>> of helium <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium> and terthered >>>>>>> with a cable winch. It can board up to 30 tourists, max total >>>>>>> weigh 2,500 kg (5,500 lb) whom it takes to 150 m (490 ft) above Paris. >>>>>>> for 15 minuteas a apsesent fare of sixteen Euros a head. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Though hardly stratospherics, that works out to $194 a tonne >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 6:18:14 AM UTC-5 >>>>>>> alang...@gmail.com wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Andrew, >>>>>>>> I used Hydrogen for 20 years to use for weather balloons. No >>>>>>>> problem , even when one exploded fir a colleague in a balloon shed ( >>>>>>>> he has >>>>>>>> the doors firmly closed and there was a leak , which he knew about). >>>>>>>> Probably millions of radiosondes were launched with hydrogen. We had a >>>>>>>> fusion lab where hydrogen was piped around the facility. However, in >>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>> Falklands they had a hydrogen making device … ( solid + water). Now >>>>>>>> that >>>>>>>> was dangerous. There was one hole in the ground in africa where a >>>>>>>> hydrogen plant as above had been sited, but using the stuff is a safe. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> obviously , if you plant a bomb nearby , little is safe ( what was >>>>>>>> the actual cause of the hind disaster?) >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> i predict trains / trucks / cars will soon be using the stuff. Far >>>>>>>> greener than Li batteries and I think safer. Never mind the Co2 >>>>>>>> output. >>>>>>>> An electric car costs more to produce as regards Co2 than a small >>>>>>>> petrol >>>>>>>> car does ( + 70,000) miles of petrol. i should have bought an H2 car, >>>>>>>> but >>>>>>>> the problem is there are / were on 11 charging stations in the YK and >>>>>>>> 8 of >>>>>>>> them were in the M25 >>>>>>>> A. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> T --- >>>>>>>> Alan Gadian, UK. >>>>>>>> Tel: +44 / 0 775 451 9009 >>>>>>>> T --- >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On 29 Dec 2022, at 11:05, Andrew Lockley <andrew....@gmail.com> >>>>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Large weather balloons don't have much over pressure relative to >>>>>>>> volume, so venting is a challenge. Valves and pumps add weight. >>>>>>>> Hydrogen >>>>>>>> has ground handling risks, due to flammability (Hindenberg), and any >>>>>>>> leaks >>>>>>>> risk buoyancy loss and the canopy descending loaded. The most extreme >>>>>>>> scenario is that an out of control failed balloon descends into an >>>>>>>> enclosed >>>>>>>> building through an open door, skylight, or Courtyard. In windy >>>>>>>> conditions, >>>>>>>> drift into a small industrial unit is perfectly possible, through the >>>>>>>> roller shutter doors - which could be automatically or accidentally >>>>>>>> closed >>>>>>>> behind, trapping the balloon and its flammable payload. This could >>>>>>>> allow a >>>>>>>> loaded canopy to leak out into a fully enclosed space, with ignition >>>>>>>> risks. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> While such scenarios appear outlandish, with thousands or millions >>>>>>>> of launches, they become real risks. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Andrew >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Thu, 29 Dec 2022, 10:19 Stephen Salter, <s.sa...@ed.ac.uk> >>>>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Hi >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> I do not understand the bit about bursting. Control of a venting >>>>>>>>> valve protects the balloon and allows release at the chosen altitude. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Helium is irreplaceable and needed for super cooling. Is there a >>>>>>>>> reason not to use hydrogen? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Stephen >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *School of Engineering* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *University of Edinburgh* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Mayfield Road* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Edinburgh EH9 3DW* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Scotland* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *0131 650 5704 or 0131 662 1180* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *From:* geoengi...@googlegroups.com <geoengi...@googlegroups.com> *On >>>>>>>>> Behalf Of *Daniele Visioni >>>>>>>>> *Sent:* 28 December 2022 23:51 >>>>>>>>> *To:* lu...@lukeiseman.com >>>>>>>>> *Cc:* geoengineering <geoengi...@googlegroups.com> >>>>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [geo] Make Sunsets: Clarifications! >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *This email was sent to you by someone outside the University.* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> You should only click on links or attachments if you are certain >>>>>>>>> that the email is genuine and the content is safe. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Luke, >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> I will keep finding this rather murky as long as you keep being so >>>>>>>>> hand-wavy about your numbers and then claiming you can offset a >>>>>>>>> “substantial amount of warming” in your homepage. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Weather balloons have different bursting altitudes depending on 1) >>>>>>>>> payload 2) amount of helium used to inflate 3) material. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> You can find an example here with a calculator down below that >>>>>>>>> lets you calculate max bursting height based on inflation >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> https://www.highaltitudescience.com/products/near-space-balloon-1200-g >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Which balloons did you use? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> How much did you inflate them? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Did you check with the producer if the mix of SO₂ and He in the >>>>>>>>> balloon would affect their calculations, and if so how? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> The forcing we’re talking about changes depending on altitude of >>>>>>>>> release as well: at 19 it’s different than at 25 (and depending on >>>>>>>>> your >>>>>>>>> definition, sometimes the tropopause is above 18km..), and above 29km >>>>>>>>> sulfate aerosols evaporate because temperatures are too high to form >>>>>>>>> liquid >>>>>>>>> aerosols. If the balloon doesn’t burst at the right altitude, what >>>>>>>>> would >>>>>>>>> happen to the oxidized S is not so simple - frankly I don’t know the >>>>>>>>> answer >>>>>>>>> off the top of my head, there are a few factors that could influence >>>>>>>>> this. >>>>>>>>> Do you have studies showing what would happen there based on lack of >>>>>>>>> water >>>>>>>>> vapor and different temperature and OH levels? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> If you don’t - and you don’t have any tools to measure it yet - >>>>>>>>> maybe you should at least tone down the claims already present on >>>>>>>>> your >>>>>>>>> website? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> For some ranges of stratospheric releases of sulfate we have some >>>>>>>>> numbers for SAI we can be somewhat confident about - not just in term >>>>>>>>> of >>>>>>>>> the forcing but in terms of downstream effects on the stratospheric >>>>>>>>> composition - but this may not be true for what you are proposing or >>>>>>>>> claiming you are doing. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Lastly, in your Twitter account you claimed in a post 2 days ago >>>>>>>>> that there are “supporters and scientists who believe in you”. I >>>>>>>>> would >>>>>>>>> avoid claiming you have the support of scientists if you don’t - or >>>>>>>>> show >>>>>>>>> proofs if you do. As far as any scientist I know is concerned they >>>>>>>>> don’t >>>>>>>>> seem particularly impressed - and your lack of clarity goes against >>>>>>>>> any of >>>>>>>>> the calls for open and transparent research (not to mention inclusive >>>>>>>>> decision making) this community has asked in previous public >>>>>>>>> statements. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Daniele >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On 28 Dec 2022, at 18:09, Luke Iseman <lu...@lukeiseman.com> >>>>>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Thanks Andrew, Olivier, Bala, and everyone else for diving in with >>>>>>>>> critiques here. I'm a cofounder of Make Sunsets and want to clarify a >>>>>>>>> few >>>>>>>>> things: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Honesty: * >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> We have no desire to mislead anyone. If we make a mistake (which >>>>>>>>> we will), we'll correct it. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Radiative Forcing:* >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> I didn't make this "gram offsets a ton" number up. It comes from >>>>>>>>> David Keith's research: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> "a gram of aerosol in the stratosphere, delivered perhaps by >>>>>>>>> high-flying jets, could offset the warming effect of a ton of carbon >>>>>>>>> dioxide, a factor of 1 million to 1." >>>>>>>>> <https://keith.seas.harvard.edu/news/whats-right-temperature-earth> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> and, again: "Geoengineering’s leverage is very high—one gram of >>>>>>>>> particles in the stratosphere prevents the warming caused by a ton of >>>>>>>>> carbon dioxide." >>>>>>>>> <https://longnow.org/seminars/02015/feb/17/patient-geoengineering/> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> By stating "offsetting the warming effect of 1 ton of carbon for 1 >>>>>>>>> year," I was trying to be more conservative than Professor Keith. I >>>>>>>>> am >>>>>>>>> correcting "carbon" to read "carbon dioxide" on the cooling credit >>>>>>>>> description right now, and I'm adding a paragraph at the start of the >>>>>>>>> post >>>>>>>>> stating that estimates vary, but a leading researcher cites a gram >>>>>>>>> offsetting a ton. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> For the several hundred dollars of cooling credits we've already >>>>>>>>> sold, I'll be providing evidence to each purchaser that I've >>>>>>>>> delivered at >>>>>>>>> least 2 grams per cooling credit. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Olivier, or anyone else: I'd be happy to post something by you to >>>>>>>>> our blog explaining what you estimate the radiative forcing of 1g so2 >>>>>>>>> released at 20km altitude from in or near the tropics will be and >>>>>>>>> why. I >>>>>>>>> will include language of your choosing explaining that you in no way >>>>>>>>> endorse what we are doing. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> I very much hope to get suggestions from this community on >>>>>>>>> instrumentation we should fly to improve the state of the science >>>>>>>>> here. >>>>>>>>> Again, I'm happy to do this with disclaimers about how researchers we >>>>>>>>> fly >>>>>>>>> things for are not endorsing our efforts. Or even without revealing >>>>>>>>> who the >>>>>>>>> researchers are: we'll fly test instruments and provide data, no >>>>>>>>> questions >>>>>>>>> asked:) >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Telemetry: * >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> My first 2 flights had no telemetry: in April, this was still in >>>>>>>>> self-funded science project territory. After burning some sulfur and >>>>>>>>> capturing the resultant gas, I placed this in a balloon. I then added >>>>>>>>> helium, underinflating the balloon substantially, and let it go. >>>>>>>>> There is >>>>>>>>> technically a slim possibility that neither of these balloons reached >>>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>>> stratosphere, as I acknowledged to the Technology Review reporter. I >>>>>>>>> will >>>>>>>>> add Spot trackers to my next flights. These cut out at 18km, so I'l >>>>>>>>> be able >>>>>>>>> to confirm that I achieve at least this altitude. If (and this is a >>>>>>>>> big if) >>>>>>>>> I'm able to recover the balloons, I'll have a lot more data from the >>>>>>>>> flight >>>>>>>>> computer >>>>>>>>> <https://www.highaltitudescience.com/collections/electronics/products/eagle-flight-computer>. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> I will eventually switch to Swarms >>>>>>>>> <https://www.sparkfun.com/products/19236?utm_campaign=May%206%2C%202022&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=212205037&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9EyQOQ6C-9XuSOHa7CggOC8Pf2tEow_Fppo5pXgTHO8-7gV-aHrrYpnPcliws6Ju8j2PBAX3Tkog0oVpwk8XqWX2xo0w&utm_content=212206499&utm_source=hs_email>, >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> which should let me transmit more data regardless of balloon recovery. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Pricing: * >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Bala, you're totally right that this should be priced much lower. >>>>>>>>> We're trying to make enough with our early flights to stay in >>>>>>>>> business >>>>>>>>> until we get meaningful traction with customers, and we plan to >>>>>>>>> eventually >>>>>>>>> drop prices to $1 per ton or less. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> *Reuse: * >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> We are not yet reusing balloons, and Andrew is correct that latex >>>>>>>>> UV degradation will limit our ability to do so with weather balloons. >>>>>>>>> Given >>>>>>>>> that balloon cost is our main expense per gram, even a few uses per >>>>>>>>> balloon >>>>>>>>> will dramatically improve the economics here. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> I expect to disagree with some of you, but I hope we can do so >>>>>>>>> politely and assuming good intentions. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>>>>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>>>>>>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >>>>>>>>> send an email to geoengineerin...@googlegroups.com. >>>>>>>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>>>>>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/550ec54e-4b36-4b6e-b4be-834229c870cen%40googlegroups.com >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/550ec54e-4b36-4b6e-b4be-834229c870cen%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>>>>>>>> . >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>>>>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>>>>>>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >>>>>>>>> send an email to geoengineerin...@googlegroups.com. >>>>>>>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>>>>>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/9942AB80-E648-4DCE-8E51-B7FC7EFF1352%40gmail.com >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/9942AB80-E648-4DCE-8E51-B7FC7EFF1352%40gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>>>>>>>> . >>>>>>>>> The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in >>>>>>>>> Scotland, with registration number SC005336. Is e buidheann >>>>>>>>> carthannais a >>>>>>>>> th’ ann an Oilthigh Dhùn Èideann, clàraichte an Alba, àireamh >>>>>>>>> clàraidh >>>>>>>>> SC005336. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>>>>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>>>>>>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >>>>>>>>> send an email to geoengineerin...@googlegroups.com. >>>>>>>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>>>>>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/AM8PR05MB80359D6D052CF2BA3940E360A7F39%40AM8PR05MB8035.eurprd05.prod.outlook.com >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/AM8PR05MB80359D6D052CF2BA3940E360A7F39%40AM8PR05MB8035.eurprd05.prod.outlook.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>>>>>>>> . >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>>>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>>>>>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >>>>>>>> send an email to geoengineerin...@googlegroups.com. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>>>>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-05k%2BYfdjymwSQ2o%3D4J0fpnYJ%3D03r8OtiorsaAT2mSiKJQ%40mail.gmail.com >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-05k%2BYfdjymwSQ2o%3D4J0fpnYJ%3D03r8OtiorsaAT2mSiKJQ%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>>>>>>> . >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> -- >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>>>> an email to geoengineerin...@googlegroups.com. >>>>> >>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/f0172e2d-15f9-451a-ab0c-b070d594f41an%40googlegroups.com >>>>> >>>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/f0172e2d-15f9-451a-ab0c-b070d594f41an%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>>>> . >>>>> >>>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to geoengineerin...@googlegroups.com. >>> >> To view this discussion on the web visit >>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/c807ddc3-faf6-4663-acb4-1574b2fa6a40n%40googlegroups.com >>> >>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/c807ddc3-faf6-4663-acb4-1574b2fa6a40n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>> . >>> >> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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