The article is focusing on abrupt changes and
ignoring steady state changes, this is a major
mistake.
I don't know how to calculate the probability of
abrupt climate changes, nor have I seen many
reliable reports of such calculations agreeing on
similar numbers. I do know that the probability
that the Earth's global mean surface temperature
is slowly rising is roughly 20 nines, or
99.999999999999999999%. That is well above
1%, and that clearly should be a policy concern.
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