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Networking Maths for Dummies (Something you have to wonder about with Valve)

Total Available Network Bandwidth for STEAM Content Servers: 8Gb/s

Total Number of Counter-Strike Players > 1,000,000 (Probably a lot higher if
you consider actual STEAM Clients)

Total Size of HL2 =  A Few Gigabytes (Lets say 2GB's compressed just to be
charitable, actually lets make it 1 Gigabyte to simplfy the maths)

Lets say only 25% of the people who want HL2 try to download it, thats
approximately 250,000 people ( I know that every man and his dog is waiting
for HL2 from all the games on our service who would not touch Counter-Strike
with a 10 foot pole, so any number I come up with is going to be worse!)

To keep things simple 8Gbps = 1,000,000,000 Bytes Per Seccond

250,000 people trying to download through 1,000,000,000 Bytes Per Seccond
total bandwidth = 4000 bytes per second per client or more or less 4KB/s (Yay)

Time to take to download 1GigaByte at 4KiloBytes per Second = ??

4KB/s will get you 240KB a minute so lets be charitable and say you are going
to get 15MB per hour

Thats means 360MB a day or just under 3 days to download 1 Gigabyte through
STEAM content servers, and thats downloading 24 hours a day for the full
amount of time.

If they double the available bandwith then they halve the time for 250,000
users, but I'm making the assumption that its only going to be 250,000 users,
who here thinks its only going to be 250,000 people trying to download HL2???

Who here thinks HL2 is only going to be 1 Gigabyte in Size?

Who here thinks only 250,000 people will be wanting access to Half-Life 2?

Can any of you see any of the problems I foreseen being resolved even if Valve
double or triple or quaddruple their STEAM Content Servers Bandwidth??

Hell, Valve can barely keep up with with those people who have Condition Zero
and ATI vouchers without their network falling into a heap!

I predict another disaster

I know how they can alleviate the problem though, but I do not know how big a
deal it is, but Valve definitely did not have a problem preloading Condition
Zero on my computer and its updates without my consent, I cannot even turn off
the fact that its going to do this, which shits me to no end.

But in any case the way to help solve the bandwidth limitation problem would
be to release the HL2 gcf file(s) to all the major file distributor sites and
let people download it through there and pick up any pieces through the STEAM
Content Servers, thats how it should be done until Valve have access to a
STEAM Content Network with at least 100Gbps worth of Bandwith which even then
probably wouln't be enough, but at least it would not be a total disaster!
>I couldn't get in at all last night. If you think this is a circus,
>wait
>until HL2 comes
>out - it will be a friggin' zoo for weeks unless they actually do
>something
>different to ensure they have the bandwidth. I hate to be negative,
>but
>Valve has not yet been able to handle a major roll out without
>serious
>bandwidth problems. Bandwidth costs money - a lot of money - and
>Valve may
>be content to have us just wait our turn. They probably think we
>want it
>badly enough to put up with crap it takes to get updates during peak
>bandwidth periods.
>
>
You do realize that they increased their bandwith to 8Gb/s for the CS:S
pre-load and only used one half of that. When Hl2 release approaches the
plan is to increase it another 4Gb/s.
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===References:===
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