On balance, I think that Java does a pretty good job with version-to-version compatibility. Most programs in my experience work fine on version upgrades. There are some problems, but they are usually because the programmer was sloppy and paid no attention to deprecated apis, etc. If your code has a nice automated regression test suite, then your ability to adapt to any change - java version, platform, new requirements, etc - is an order of magnitude easier. But 90% of code written today is crap. That's the real reason why comparing new languages to old code written in COBOL and BAL is meaningless.
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