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SUPANGKAT'S COLUMN:

        HOW GUS DUR STOLE POLITICAL VICTORY IN INDONESIA

Frail and half blind as he is, Gus Dur (Abdurrachman Wahid) proved to be a
very
shrewd politician. I suspect he is a disciple of either Macchiavelli (The
Prince)
or RGH Siu (The Craft of Power).

Apparently he inherited charisma from his gandfather KH Wahid Hasyim the
founding father of the Nahdatul Ulama (NU) an orthodox Muslim association
based
in Jombang (East Java), the largest Islamic organization whose membership
total-
led about 30 million out of about 200 million Muslims.

He has no formal education - foreign journalists dubbed him as an
intellectual -
except for his "Baathist" association and  University courses in  Baghdad. He
 is more like an autodidact but he is not known as a book worm either.

Since he is not an intellectual, he said one thing today and another thing
tomor-
row. He is puzzling with his zigzags, therefore nobody took him seriously.

He is not an intellectual like Amien Rais or Nurcholish Madjid, he is also
more a
politician than a Muslim clerk. However, he is neither an orthodox nor a
fundamentalist modern Muslim. He has his own definition of secularism which is
very vague and unscientific.

There is an inconsistency between his NU doctrine and his own politicking. He
never supported the idea of an Islamic state cherished by the fundamentalists
inside and outside the NU. Unlike the rest of the Muslims in Indonesia, he ad-
vocated  open diplomatic relations with Israel, visited Tel Aviv twice
(Jerusa-
lem?) and recommended his people to go to a Zionist college.

Of course the fundamentalists love to hate him. But the latest political
situation
made him a hero of the Central Axis which is none other than the Islamic Axis
who propelled him to the present presidency, eventhough his party is only the
third largest in the past election behind PDI-P and Golkar.

Judging from the present explosive situation where the masses from Mega's
group and the Axis are ready to jump at each other's throats, Wahid Presidency
could save the day temporarily since he has influence to both parties and his
own, "the Banser" who was responsible for the slaying of suspected communists
in Central and East Java.

Hopefully there will be political stability. But who knows? If Mega masses no
longer obeyed her, there is also a chance the Muslim masses would do the
same sooner or later.

The problem remains: how is he going to overcome the multiple crissis in
general,
the economic crisis in particular while he is known for his weakness in
economic
insight?

When Amien Rais was fighting with his life against Suharto, Wahid was idle and
suffering from diabetes and strokes. After he became better, he kowtowed to
Tutut and to Suharto himself. But to Amien and to Mega he pledged differently.

Initially he kept saying that he supports Mega as Presidential candidate. When
the Islamic Axis pushed him to let down Mega, he accepted it wilingly and kept
saying that he is supporting Mega. At the last moment he reportedly pleaded
with Mega to take into account some Muslim's interests and failed to get the
proper attention, Gus Dur outmaneuvered Mega in a blietzkrieg and won by a
signifant margin.

I wondered why the White House is witholding its support until Gus named his
Vice President. According to the 45 Constitution, the VP has very little power
as long as the President is in power. Could it be that judging from his
present
poor health, Gus is expected to be replaced before long?

Some members of the MPR like Nur Katjasungkana expessed her disappointment
about an undemocratic election system of the President. Megawati surely could
not complain because she is committed to the 45 Constitution which had victim-
ized her by its undemocratic indirect system. The Minangkabau people says
that Mega has been "termakan dek kato" (victimized by her own commitment).

Now we agreed that the next Presidential election should be directly done by
the people in the general election.

Wait for another five years, no matter what happens now.

New York, October 20, 1999.

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Didistribusikan tgl. 20 Oct 1999 jam 22:03:09 GMT+1
oleh: Indonesia Daily News Online <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
http://www.Indo-News.com/
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